Aikakauden tulkitseminen

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Eurofutures: Five Scenarios for the Next Millenium Hardcover
by David Smith (Author)
Hardcover: 252 pages
Publisher: Capstone; 1 edition (February 22, 2001)
ISBN-13: 978-1900961165
http://www.amazon.com/Eurofutures-Five-Scenarios-Next-Millenium/dp/1900961164

Tässä pieniä otteita kirjasta: D. Smith, Eurofutures, 1997.

"EU for ever?

As Europe has added layers of economic co-operation, and the EU has gained new members, the impression has been conveyed of an irreversible process, both for the continent as a whole, and for individual participants. The latter, as a simple fact, is untrue."

s. 59:
"The crunch for Britain, according to Burkitt, Baimbridge and Whyman, would come with the creation of Emu. Without it, the status quo of gradual but manageable integration seems more attractive than the cold, unprotected world of independence. But with it:

=> Emu threatens not only living standards but also the right of people to govern themselves. The changes it generates will mean that, whenever the House of Commons fulfils its constitutional role of bringing citizens´ complaints to the attention of executive authority, no effective response is possible since power has authority, no effective response since power has moved to EU institutions. Britain must, therefore, make a clear statement expressing its opposition to any future erosion of the ability of its people to govern themselves and to rebuild its industrial strenght. This would uncouple the UK from damaging integrationalist open to it as an internationally competetive but independ country. (pp. 106-7)"

s. 60:
"Survey evidence trends to confirm a weak loyalty on the part of most of the citizens of the European Institution. Such loyalty cannot somehow be created through education and information. It will follow only if governments and citizens see in a united Europe benefits which are unavailable through national action alone.

If the cost of price stability which it is widely accepted would result from monetary union is further unemployment and deflation in some countries without compensating incom equalisation, the whole project may fail.

As of the mid-1990s all the evidence points to the creation of a smallest, more cohesive union based on a core of states dominated by the German economy ... and is extremely unlikely to include the high-inflation peripheral states such as Britain, Italy and Spain."

Otteita kirjasta: D. Smith, Eurofutures, 1997.

s. 243
"The United States...

There is a sense in the American attitude of a ´Goldilocks´ approach to Europe - wanting it to be succesful, but not too successful. Henry Kissinger once wrote: ´American policy has been extremely ambivalent: wanting European unity while
recoiling before its propable consequences.´ Thus, if there was a genuine, lasting economic renaissance in Europe, and if the euro came to replace the dollar as the world's most important currency, America could begin to rue its earlier backing for European integration.

There is a sense too in which, while Washington has been critical of Europe for its foreign policy indecisiveness .- in the 1990s over Bosnia and Iraq - it might not welcome a new European superpower , throwing its weight around welcome a new European superpower, throwing its weight around on the international stage. America on the other hand, does not want political instability or economic failure in Europe in the 21st century. One clear possibility if Europe´s Single Market is seen to be successful is the development of transatlantic free trade, even a formal transatlantic free trade area (Tafta), effectively providing a single market linking the EU and the members of Nafta (the Nafta American FreeTrade Agreement) - America, Canada and Mexico.--"

Otteita kirjasta: D. Smith, Eurofutures, 1997.

s. 179 (Tämä on vain yksi skenaario monista mahdollisista)

"Fifty years on

When people warned at the end of the 20th century that Europe had forgotten the techniques of economic growth and job creation, the optimistis
laughed such warnings off. The first half of the 21st century is proof, however, that all such fears were justified.

The idea of Europe as one of the richest regions of the globe has become a distant memory, half of the 20th century.

The EU has ceased to function as an effective empire is to late 20th-century students. Mass unemployment is rife, those lucky to have a job are rarity in some regions.

The old are increasingly also the poor - on these new dark ages the old promises about pensions and security in old age count for nothing. Europe is failing moribund region."

Käännös:
"Viisikymmentä vuotta myöhemmin

Kun ihmiset varoittivat 20. vuosisadan (tarkoitaa vuosia 1900-1999) lopussa, että Eurooppa oli unohtanut
taloudellisen kasvun ja työpaikkojen luomisen tekniikat, optimistit nauroivat tällaisille varoituksille.

21. vuosisadan (21. vuosisata tark. vuosia 2000-2999) alkupuolisko on kuitenkin todiste, että kaikki tällaiset
pelot ovat perusteltuja.

Ajatus Euroopasta yhtenä rikkaimmista maanosissa on tullut kaukainen muisto, puolet 20. vuosisadasta.

EU on lakannut toimintansa kuten tehokas imperiumi on liian myöhäistä 20. vuosituhannen opiskelijoille. Massatyöttömyys on yleistä, ne onnekkaat, joilla on työpaikka ovat harvinaisuuksia joillakin alueilla.

Vanhat ovat yhä myös yhä enemmän köyhiä - näinä uusina pimeinä aikoina vanhat lupaukset eläkkeistä ja vanhuuden turvasta eivät merkitse mitään. Eurooppa muuttunut kuolemaisillaan olevaksi alueeksi."