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Weekend Soccer – By Chris.
The Premiership
Arsenal - Charlton 1.40 - 10.00
There is no stopping Arsenal now! (1.40) With Henry in top form and new found confidence among his young and extremely talented colleagues, Arsenal have returned to elite status. They have lost Freddie Ljungberg for this match, Reyes as well, but both van Persie and Sol Campbell are back in training, and could play some part on Saturday. Charlton just about defeated a Middlesbrough side, dominated by fringe players at the week end, and I guess that only the result in itself (2-1) could please their coach Curbishley. Marcus Bent remain sidelined. Arsenal then. (1.40)
Birmingham - Tottenham 3.20 - 2.40
I have a tendency to back Birmingham at St Andrews, but I cannot do it this time. Would you believe that they were actually second best to W B A last week, despite home advantage, with WBA creating all the chances. This is the final straw for me - second best to WBA - the Championship is waiting for Bruce and his Birmingham. They missed players like Jarosik and Sutton, but still looked OK, with Dunn, Heskey, Izzet, Forsell and others playing. Hopefully key defender Cunningham will be back on Saturday, but it looks like this time none of Jarosik, Dunn, Izzet, J Gray and Sutton will be able to play. Poor Birmingham midfield this time, in other words. Tottenham continued their painful habit of losing their matches very late in the game, when Gallas hit his wonder goal in over time. Nothing wrong with the Tottenham effort, on the contrary, as they were able to dominate Chelsea from time to time. Unfortunately not during the final 15 minutes. A Reid should be fit for this match, but Mido is an injury doubt. Defoe will start, if Mido can not prove his fitness. I have to back the away win. (2.40)
Blackburn - Middlesbrough 1.85 - 4.60
Right moment to face Middlesbrough, and I support the home win. (1.85) Blackburn had both Gamst-Pedersen and Dickov back in action last week, when they defeated A Villa, 2-0. Despite the 2-0 win, Blackburn played a mediocre game, and only some woeful finishing by the Villa strikers saved the first half for Blackburn. They could have been down 0-2 or 0-3 instead of the 0-0, and in the second half Blackburn produced some better football, but they never peaked vs Villa. Unchanged squad tomorrow. Remains to be seen how many changes the Middlesbrough coach McClaren will make ahead of this game. Boro knocked out Roma of the UEFA - cup in mid week, despite losing the return leg, 1-2 and next week Boro play a FA - cup quater final vs Charlton. Tough schedule, and we will see if McClaren will make as many changes this week end as last week. He changed his team on 9 positions for the Charlton fixture. Blackburn have only this match to focus on, and the home win is the logical choice. Disappointing price however. (1.85)
Bolton - Sunderland 1.40 - 9.50
I am not there yet, when I can back Bolton as mega favourites. I need more time, and until then I have to back Sunderland in a match like this one, or to skip the game, from a betting view. What positive can I say about Sunderland? Well, they created some great scoring chances in the first half against Wigan. If it is positive, it is another question, as they could not put them away. They lost again, and are still without a home win, and we are in March. G Breen back for this match, but Arca, one of their few class players, will probably be sidelined. According to the Bolton coach Allardyce, Bolton played their season best football in the first half vs W Ham. As Bolton once again played W Ham (mid week FA - cup replay) you may argue that the Bolton players could be somewhat jaded come Saturday. Then again Allardyce is used to rotate his squad. Bolton lost, 1-2, against W Ham. Extra time loss, despite Bolton being the better side. I cannot back Sunderland. No bet!
Everton - Aston Villa 1.91 - 4.55
Home win! (1.91) Having watched Villa lose to M City in mid week, I cannot be too hopeful about the Villa possibilities in this match. They created very little and looked vulnerable in defence. It was dangerous every time that M City came close to the Villa penalty area. Milan Baros suffered an injury and he is out on Saturday, probably K Phillips and Angel as well. Only one fit striker - Luke Moore. Still no James Milner. Everton outclassed Fulham last week, with J Beattie beginning to look like a potential international. He scored an absolute beauty, and he will be an Everton hero forever after that goal. Quiet week for Everton, and they will come well prepared for this encounter. Players like Carsley, Naysmith and van der Meyde are back in contention. Should absolutely end with a home win. (1.91)
Manchester City - Wigan 2.15 - 4.00
City just about defeated Wigan in their FA - cup meeting some time ago. City had the home advantage and scored a very late 1-0 winner. Wigan did not field their best starting line up, but tomorrow coach Jewell will come with his strongest side. City should have Distin back this time, and Samaras should also have recovered in time. He received one or two knocks in the A Villa game. Latest news indicate that Samaras could be rested, maybe J Barton as well. City will play the FA - cup quarter final already on Monday and this league fixture with Wigan comes at an difficult moment, does it not? Surely the Monday quarter final must be given top priority, as City have not reached this far in the FA - cup for ages. Anyway, it is always a tough job to face Wigan, and the City boss Pearce just have to use some kind of rotation policy this time. Right time to back the ever fighting Wigan side. (4.00)
W B A - Manchester United 8.00 - 1.55
Every match has to be played, and so on, but in my mind this can only end with an away win, much like the price indicates. (1.55) OK, I will never forget that United lost to Norwich last season, in a similar situation, and the price was 10.00! Anyway, convincing display by United last week vs Newcastle, with W Rooney, who else? even more impressive than usual. WBA really should have won last week away to Birmingham, but then again bottom sides often miss their scoring chances. They looked stronger offensively when Ellington and Kanu came on in the 68th minute. Personally I always prefer Ellington and Kanu to K Campbell, but coach Robson should know best. Away win, but an indifferent price of course. (1.55)
West Ham - Portsmouth 1.95 - 4.52
With West Ham heavily involved in the FA - cup, I will probably make some investment on the away win. (4.52) I say probably, because it is never easy to back Pompey away from Fratton Park. D'Alessandro lifted Portsmouth last week, yes, their goal hero Mendes as well. D'Alessandro played in a free role between the midfield and the strikers, and Portsmouth at least reminded of a Premiership team again. I was not at all impressed by the W Ham performance against Bolton in mid week, despite their 2-1 win. They lost the ball too easily, and I never saw any fluency in their game. It is tough to face Bolton, as they have a certain know how - to stop their opponents from performing. Even if I acknowledge the Bolton factor I was disappointed with the Hammers display, but OK, they advanced to the quarter final. They visit Manchester on Monday for this quarter final vs M City. Portsmouth should have a fair chance of winning this league game, and I back the away win. (4.52)
Newcastle - Liverpool 3.12 - 2.45
When finally Newcastle, with new boss Roeder, faced quality opposition, they were outplayed. Nothing to be ashamed of really, as United on a good day can sweep away most sides. Time for tough opponent, number 2, Liverpool, on Sunday, but this time at St James park. Kieron Dyer played for half an hour at Old Trafford, and with him in contention again, the Newcastle midfield looks quite strong. (S Parker, Solano, Emre, Dyer and the exciting N'Zogbia) Liverpool travel to Birmingham for a FA - cup quarter final on Tuesday, and that cup fixture is important for Liverpool. Their only chance of silver ware this season. Why not a FA - cup final between Chelsea and Liverpool? What am I driving at? I say possibly, this match with Newcastle could be slightly overlooked by the Liverpool players. Xabi Alonso and Hyppia back for Liverpool. Maybe I make a bet on the home win. (3.12)
Fulham - Chelsea 7.94 - 1.53
No game for Chelsea in mid week, while Fulham had to visit Anfield. (1-5 loss). This is just the kind of match that we have seen Chelsea play numerous times this season. I mean something like this - the Chelsea players barely go through the motions in the first half, and then in the second half they put the screw on their opponents and usually clinch the three points. Fulham have conceded 12 goals in their last 3 matches, and the word free falling comes to my mind. Away win! (1.53)
Serie A
Livorno - Juventus 5.50 - 1.92
I remember a very convenient draw in this fixture last season. Maybe I choose the away win this time, especially as it looks like the Livorno bomber C Lucarelli will miss this match. De Ascentis and Passoni not available either. The latest I heard is, that Lucarelli is better now and could be placed on the bench, at least to start with. Juventus are without Chiellini but Zambrotta is fit again. You get the impression that Livorno have already played their best games of the season, and my guess is that we will see some "not up to standard" games by the club. Well, their poorer part of the season seems to have started, as they are winless in their last 4 matches. Away win! (1.92)
Treviso - Cagliari 3.30 - 2.50Last week Treviso lost to a 86 the minute goal. At least it did not happen in overtime. That they keep on losing games late on is one thing, but their failure to score goals is really the saddest part. 0-0 or 0-1 does not matter much, at least the way I see it. So far Treviso have mustered 16 goals in 29 games. They have one dangerous player, Borriello, and he gets great reviews game after game, but he is out there on his own. Unknown (for me) players like Aquafresca and De Martino started last week and they will probably be part of the starting line up vs Cagliari as well. Both these players are only 19 years old. They miss the suspended Valdez. Gobbi will be back for the away side, maybe also Bega. Treviso are 1-2-11 at home and Cagliari are 1-2-12 away from home and it is difficult to be enthusiastic ahead of this Saturday encounter. OK, I support the away win. (2.50)
Chievo - Siena 2.11 - 4.33
Both these sides have overachieved this season, at least the way I see it. Chievo are 6-7-1 at home so far, and my suggestion has to be the home win or the draw. Chievo is set to be unchanged and Siena only miss Portanova and Colonnese, but all their key players will be available. Maybe the Siena strike force, Bogdani and Chiesa, are more potent than the Chievo duo, Amauri and Tiribocchi. OK, I choose the draw alternative. (3.10)
Fiorentina - Ascoli 1.54 - 8.00
Luca Toni will not play for his Fiorentina this week end, and we will see Jimenez joining Bojinov up front instead.. Without Toni, who is really interested in backing a low priced Fiorentina win? Not this writer anyway. I saw the Ascoli - Roma encounter last week and surely the newcomers are the team of the season in Serie A. Anonymous side more or less, but their football is both attractive and efficient. OK, their away performances are not equally strong, but that goes for most Serie A sides. Guana is back this week end, and he will replace the suspended Parola. Look out for this Foggia - exciting new player. No Toni, and I will invest some of my hard earned cash on the Ascoli win. (8.00)
Inter - Lazio 1.60 - 7.50
To suggest the home win is of course the normal thing to do here, but what about the almost bizarre tradition in this encounter. The last 10 home encounters for Inter against Lazio have ended 0-9-1. No home win! How about that! As Lazio for the moment are in great form, more reason to respect tradition on Sunday. Unfortunately Lazio will be without Di Canio. Behrami will return, but some doubts concerning Rocchi. No Stankovic for Inter. Could be that the Inter players will be a bit complacent ahead of this match, after their mid week win against Ajax. This time I back tradition and the draw. (3.75)
Lecce - Parma 2.62 - 3.05
To win this game is an absolute necessity for Lecce and I doubt that this pressure will be of much help to the strugglers. Top sides can handle pressure but certainly not bottom sides like Lecce. Maybe they have already given up and that could be their best chance. Vucinic should be fit and Lecce will be able to field their strongest side. Parma win some and lose some, as 3 players return from suspensions and 2 go the other way. I say - no big deal. They are on a great little run, Parma, just at the best of moments, with 3 wins in their last 4 games. The loss was against Fiorentina, 2-4, with Parma 2-0 up after half an hour. Two successive away wins, vs Treviso and Messina, both 1-0 wins, and both belong to the lucky category. Lecce have not won this fixture lately, (0-3-3) and I have my doubts about their winning ability on Sunday. The draw should be forbidden for Lecce, but these kind of fixtures often end with draws, no matter how useless the result is for, say Lecce. (3.10)
Reggina - Empoli 1.95 - 4.55
The Empoli home win against Chievo last week can never be understimated, and all of a sudden Empoli have as good a chance of staying in Serie A as a handful of other clubs, including Reggina. Well, not quite, as Reggina are 5 points ahead of Empoli. Anyway, a point in this encounter is within reach for the away side. Cagni will use a 4-3-2-1 formation, with Tavano and Vanucchi supporting Rigano. Almiron or Ficini from the start? Reggina have Lanzaro back in defence and will could use 3 strikers this time, Choutos, Cozza and Amoruso, or just Cozza and Amoruso. Cannot make up my mind this time.
Roma - Messina 1.55 - 8.50
Defensive problems for Roma this week end, with both Chivu and Mexes suspended. Not that easy for Messina either, with Donati, Zanchi and Coppola, all suspended. Muslimovic is fit again, and he could be used as the lone punter, with support from Sculli, D'Agostino and Floccari. Never been tried this formation, and it looks like a risk. Opposing Roma has been a good idea lately, and it is quite possible that Spallettis men will not be at their perfect best on Sunday, only a couple of days after their UEFA - cup fixture vs Middlesbrough. Messina fight for their existence and at this time of the season, teams like Messina have to pick up some surprising points here and there. I am not saying that this will happen on Sunday, but I am not that keen on the low priced Roma win.(1.55) Untried Messina offence? Yes, it is difficult to back the away win.
Sampdoria - Palermo 2.15 - 4.10
Time for Sampdoria to win again. (2.15) Some decent football lately by Novellino's footballers, but no points and what is worse, no goals either. They have lost three 0-1 games on the spin and last week was rather typical. They lost to Inter, but were probably worth a better result. Acute scoring problems, but good thing that Flachi will be fit to play on Sunday. He will join Colombo or Kutuzov up front. Sala will replace the injured Castellini. Palermo should have Corini ready to play again, but Terlizzi is suspended. A certain away fixture for Palermo in Germany, vs Schalke, could help Sampdoria this time, but they have to find the net of course. I choose the home win alternative. (2.15)
Udinese - Milan 5.50 - 1.75
Something for Udinese on Sunday night. Milan come without both Stam and Gattuso, while Udinese welcome back Obodo and Zenoni. The Udinese president made it clear this week, stating that this game with Milan is what matters this week, and not the UEFA - cup game vs Levski. Consequently Udinese fielded a makeshift side in Bulgaria. Can we not expect a somewhat indifferent Milan this time after their uninspiring 0-0 draw with Juventus? Or will their superior class make all the difference again? I have a hunch that Udinese will manage a positive result.
La Liga
Cadiz - Alaves 2.10 - 4.10
In this bottom of the table encounter I support the home win. (2.10) Maybe Alaves have appeared stronger these last weeks, but this week end they will be without numerous regulars, too many to ignore. Bodipo, Juanito, Sarriegui, Carpintero and Coromina are all suspended, and the big Australian striker Aloisi is a doubtful starter. Here we have some of the best Alaves players. Cadiz miss the suspended Varela and probably also Pavoni, but the good news is that Benjamin is expected back. Advantage Cadiz, and I back the home win. (2.10)
Espanyol - Osasuna 2.30 - 3.50
Home win! (2.30) Mostly an anti- Osasuna bet this one, as they also miss several key players on Sunday. Punal, Delporte, R Garcia, Moha, Ricardo and Sosa are all unavailable this time. I thought that both Delporte and Raul Garcia were outstanding against Barcelona last week, and they are not easily replaced, those two. Espanyol qualified for the Spanish cup final in mid week, by playing out a 0-0 draw away to La Coruna. Big achievement of course, to reach the cup final, and hopefully their players will be on fire again, come Sunday. Their defence was excellent vs La Coruna and both their key players de la Pena and Tamudo were in terrific form. Missing on Sunday are the suspended Costa and A Sa. Only Costa played in mid week. Yes, M Hurtado is out injured as well. Hopefully Espanyol have some energy left, enough to defeat a weakened Osasuna side. Home win! (2.30)
Villarreal - Atletico Madrid 2.30 - 3.25 - 3.50
I do not think that the draw can be avoided here. (3.25) Villarreal come to this game without their leader Riquelme, as well as Sorin and J Venta. Without Riquelme Villarreal lack that extra something and they just become a hard to beat side, but rather harmless offensively. Strong defence, strong collective, but without the cutting edge up front. Atletico have some of the strongest defenders in La Liga, and they are always tough to break down when they are in form, and they can be most effective away from home, playing the counter attack game. They miss the speedy Petrov for this match, still no Maxi, but Ibagaza is expected back. So no Petrov or Maxi to supply F Torres! Could be problems up front for Atletico this time. So two strong sides missing some influential players. Conclusion - the draw! (3.25)
Real Madrid - Real Betis 1.43 - 10.00
I get no reward for backing the low priced home win, but what else can I do? Betis could not defeat the bottom side Malaga last week, and last night they lost to Steaua Bukarest, 0-3, using their strongest side. Terrible, terrible results and now off to the Bernabeu Stadium! Missing this time for sure, the suspended Melli. Real Madrid have Gravesen, Beckham, Ronaldo and Casillas back in training again, and should be able to field their best possible line up. Home win, or an earth quake. (1.43)
Real Sociedad - Barcelona 6.23 - 1.62
Away win, I guess. (1.62) Barcelona had a bad day at the office last week and lost to Osasuna, and I expect Rijkaard's side to come fully focused this week end. Lightning does not strike twice, does it? Only Motta is missing, and he will be replaced in the squad by Gabri. Edmilson is not suspended, and will be among the starting eleven as usual. Both A Novo and De Paula available for Sociedad and they have no significant worries ahead of this clash. Away win! (1.62)
The Championship
Crystal Palace - Ipswich 1.80 - 5.00
Home win, but I admit, not a remarkable price. (1.80) I was impressed by the C Palace display against Stoke earlier this week. Full control for C P, with the speedy Andy Johnson a constant threat up front. There you have a striker playing in the wrong division. Freedman, Reich and Popovic are available again, but they will have to be content with bench roles, as C P will field the same side tomorrow as vs Stoke. Ipswich have to confront this difficult away game without at least 3 regulars, Naylor, Juan and Westlake, and there are also doubts concerning de Vos, Barron and A Lee. Should be a home win, this one! (1.80)
Coventry - Leeds 2.70 - 2.60
You still get these big prices on Coventry. (2.70) They have won their last 6 home games, with S United their latest victims. Something has happened, because this Coventry side was always one of the most erratic in the division. OK, it was easier to back Coventry last week, as their opponents, S United were/are going through a difficult spell at the moment. Cannot say that about Leeds - unbeaten in 9 league games now. Coventry come without Dennis Wise and Leeds miss S Gregan. Hutchison or Thornton in for Wise and Kilgallon probably instead of Gregan. I will back this home win (2.70), but I will combine this winning bet with an alternative one - the 2-2 result. My respect for Leeds deserve this bet. Coventry always score at the Ricoh Stadium and Leeds seldom return home with an empty score sheet.
Sheffield W - Preston 3.25 - 2.30
I make an attempt with the home win. (3.25) S W more or less outplayed QPR last week, but had their customary problems in the final third. (1-1) The week before that they totally dominated Cardiff in the second half, but once again, no reward. Tomorrow both Rocastle and J Hills could come in contention, but probably not Mac Lean. Preston are without their leading striker Nugent, and most likely C Davidson and Sedgwick. No need to fear Preston away from home! They have drawn 4 of their last 5 away games, all 0-0. Could be that S W finally will put away some of their chances tomorrow. The price is the right one! (3.25)
French league
Sochaux - Lyon 5.00 - 1.90
Away win! (1.90) One of the best Lyon players, Govou, has been out of action lately, but tomorrow he is ready to make his come back. Still no Cacapa and Reveillere, but they played for the reserves in mid week and are close to first team action. Tiago is a slight doubt. Strong Lyon side tomorrow, as most weeks of the year. For Sochaux Diawara will definitely play, but still no Brunel. Sochaux will basically come with the same squad that lost to Monaco last week. (1-4) Lyon then! (1.90)
Ajaccio - Monaco 3.20 - 2.50
Away win, number 2! (2.50) Great display by the Monegasque side last week, and it makes you wonder if they will continue to perform at that level. They have the players for it. Both Di Viao and Chevanton were on the score sheet vs Sochaux, and I guess that there is no need for a fit again Vieri this time. Expect the same line up, or will Plasil be fit to join the squad? Ajaccio look demoralised at the moment after their upsurge a couple of weeks ago. New manager and all that, but the positive effect has vanished. I guess that most of the players have realised the inevitable - going down. Not their manager however. Danjou is suspended tomorrow and A Luiz is s doubt. Still no Rocchi or Robin, but maybe Djodic could be ready. I back the away win! (2.50)
Metz - Rennes 2.60 - 2.90
Away win, number 3! (2.90) I support the free scoring Rennes side, with 13 goals in their last 4 matches. Utaka has been out for 2 weeks, but he is back for this game. He scored two successive hat tricks before his injury. Only Rennes casualty is A Frei. Metz miss Pimenov and Djiba but could have their defender Meniri back. Alioui is considered a doubt. Metz are desperate for points, but Rennes have both class and form. Away win! (2.90)
Chris.
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Betting Previews
Weekend Soccer – By Chris.
The Premiership
Arsenal - Charlton 1.40 - 10.00
There is no stopping Arsenal now! (1.40) With Henry in top form and new found confidence among his young and extremely talented colleagues, Arsenal have returned to elite status. They have lost Freddie Ljungberg for this match, Reyes as well, but both van Persie and Sol Campbell are back in training, and could play some part on Saturday. Charlton just about defeated a Middlesbrough side, dominated by fringe players at the week end, and I guess that only the result in itself (2-1) could please their coach Curbishley. Marcus Bent remain sidelined. Arsenal then. (1.40)
Birmingham - Tottenham 3.20 - 2.40
I have a tendency to back Birmingham at St Andrews, but I cannot do it this time. Would you believe that they were actually second best to W B A last week, despite home advantage, with WBA creating all the chances. This is the final straw for me - second best to WBA - the Championship is waiting for Bruce and his Birmingham. They missed players like Jarosik and Sutton, but still looked OK, with Dunn, Heskey, Izzet, Forsell and others playing. Hopefully key defender Cunningham will be back on Saturday, but it looks like this time none of Jarosik, Dunn, Izzet, J Gray and Sutton will be able to play. Poor Birmingham midfield this time, in other words. Tottenham continued their painful habit of losing their matches very late in the game, when Gallas hit his wonder goal in over time. Nothing wrong with the Tottenham effort, on the contrary, as they were able to dominate Chelsea from time to time. Unfortunately not during the final 15 minutes. A Reid should be fit for this match, but Mido is an injury doubt. Defoe will start, if Mido can not prove his fitness. I have to back the away win. (2.40)
Blackburn - Middlesbrough 1.85 - 4.60
Right moment to face Middlesbrough, and I support the home win. (1.85) Blackburn had both Gamst-Pedersen and Dickov back in action last week, when they defeated A Villa, 2-0. Despite the 2-0 win, Blackburn played a mediocre game, and only some woeful finishing by the Villa strikers saved the first half for Blackburn. They could have been down 0-2 or 0-3 instead of the 0-0, and in the second half Blackburn produced some better football, but they never peaked vs Villa. Unchanged squad tomorrow. Remains to be seen how many changes the Middlesbrough coach McClaren will make ahead of this game. Boro knocked out Roma of the UEFA - cup in mid week, despite losing the return leg, 1-2 and next week Boro play a FA - cup quater final vs Charlton. Tough schedule, and we will see if McClaren will make as many changes this week end as last week. He changed his team on 9 positions for the Charlton fixture. Blackburn have only this match to focus on, and the home win is the logical choice. Disappointing price however. (1.85)
Bolton - Sunderland 1.40 - 9.50
I am not there yet, when I can back Bolton as mega favourites. I need more time, and until then I have to back Sunderland in a match like this one, or to skip the game, from a betting view. What positive can I say about Sunderland? Well, they created some great scoring chances in the first half against Wigan. If it is positive, it is another question, as they could not put them away. They lost again, and are still without a home win, and we are in March. G Breen back for this match, but Arca, one of their few class players, will probably be sidelined. According to the Bolton coach Allardyce, Bolton played their season best football in the first half vs W Ham. As Bolton once again played W Ham (mid week FA - cup replay) you may argue that the Bolton players could be somewhat jaded come Saturday. Then again Allardyce is used to rotate his squad. Bolton lost, 1-2, against W Ham. Extra time loss, despite Bolton being the better side. I cannot back Sunderland. No bet!
Everton - Aston Villa 1.91 - 4.55
Home win! (1.91) Having watched Villa lose to M City in mid week, I cannot be too hopeful about the Villa possibilities in this match. They created very little and looked vulnerable in defence. It was dangerous every time that M City came close to the Villa penalty area. Milan Baros suffered an injury and he is out on Saturday, probably K Phillips and Angel as well. Only one fit striker - Luke Moore. Still no James Milner. Everton outclassed Fulham last week, with J Beattie beginning to look like a potential international. He scored an absolute beauty, and he will be an Everton hero forever after that goal. Quiet week for Everton, and they will come well prepared for this encounter. Players like Carsley, Naysmith and van der Meyde are back in contention. Should absolutely end with a home win. (1.91)
Manchester City - Wigan 2.15 - 4.00
City just about defeated Wigan in their FA - cup meeting some time ago. City had the home advantage and scored a very late 1-0 winner. Wigan did not field their best starting line up, but tomorrow coach Jewell will come with his strongest side. City should have Distin back this time, and Samaras should also have recovered in time. He received one or two knocks in the A Villa game. Latest news indicate that Samaras could be rested, maybe J Barton as well. City will play the FA - cup quarter final already on Monday and this league fixture with Wigan comes at an difficult moment, does it not? Surely the Monday quarter final must be given top priority, as City have not reached this far in the FA - cup for ages. Anyway, it is always a tough job to face Wigan, and the City boss Pearce just have to use some kind of rotation policy this time. Right time to back the ever fighting Wigan side. (4.00)
W B A - Manchester United 8.00 - 1.55
Every match has to be played, and so on, but in my mind this can only end with an away win, much like the price indicates. (1.55) OK, I will never forget that United lost to Norwich last season, in a similar situation, and the price was 10.00! Anyway, convincing display by United last week vs Newcastle, with W Rooney, who else? even more impressive than usual. WBA really should have won last week away to Birmingham, but then again bottom sides often miss their scoring chances. They looked stronger offensively when Ellington and Kanu came on in the 68th minute. Personally I always prefer Ellington and Kanu to K Campbell, but coach Robson should know best. Away win, but an indifferent price of course. (1.55)
West Ham - Portsmouth 1.95 - 4.52
With West Ham heavily involved in the FA - cup, I will probably make some investment on the away win. (4.52) I say probably, because it is never easy to back Pompey away from Fratton Park. D'Alessandro lifted Portsmouth last week, yes, their goal hero Mendes as well. D'Alessandro played in a free role between the midfield and the strikers, and Portsmouth at least reminded of a Premiership team again. I was not at all impressed by the W Ham performance against Bolton in mid week, despite their 2-1 win. They lost the ball too easily, and I never saw any fluency in their game. It is tough to face Bolton, as they have a certain know how - to stop their opponents from performing. Even if I acknowledge the Bolton factor I was disappointed with the Hammers display, but OK, they advanced to the quarter final. They visit Manchester on Monday for this quarter final vs M City. Portsmouth should have a fair chance of winning this league game, and I back the away win. (4.52)
Newcastle - Liverpool 3.12 - 2.45
When finally Newcastle, with new boss Roeder, faced quality opposition, they were outplayed. Nothing to be ashamed of really, as United on a good day can sweep away most sides. Time for tough opponent, number 2, Liverpool, on Sunday, but this time at St James park. Kieron Dyer played for half an hour at Old Trafford, and with him in contention again, the Newcastle midfield looks quite strong. (S Parker, Solano, Emre, Dyer and the exciting N'Zogbia) Liverpool travel to Birmingham for a FA - cup quarter final on Tuesday, and that cup fixture is important for Liverpool. Their only chance of silver ware this season. Why not a FA - cup final between Chelsea and Liverpool? What am I driving at? I say possibly, this match with Newcastle could be slightly overlooked by the Liverpool players. Xabi Alonso and Hyppia back for Liverpool. Maybe I make a bet on the home win. (3.12)
Fulham - Chelsea 7.94 - 1.53
No game for Chelsea in mid week, while Fulham had to visit Anfield. (1-5 loss). This is just the kind of match that we have seen Chelsea play numerous times this season. I mean something like this - the Chelsea players barely go through the motions in the first half, and then in the second half they put the screw on their opponents and usually clinch the three points. Fulham have conceded 12 goals in their last 3 matches, and the word free falling comes to my mind. Away win! (1.53)
Serie A
Livorno - Juventus 5.50 - 1.92
I remember a very convenient draw in this fixture last season. Maybe I choose the away win this time, especially as it looks like the Livorno bomber C Lucarelli will miss this match. De Ascentis and Passoni not available either. The latest I heard is, that Lucarelli is better now and could be placed on the bench, at least to start with. Juventus are without Chiellini but Zambrotta is fit again. You get the impression that Livorno have already played their best games of the season, and my guess is that we will see some "not up to standard" games by the club. Well, their poorer part of the season seems to have started, as they are winless in their last 4 matches. Away win! (1.92)
Treviso - Cagliari 3.30 - 2.50Last week Treviso lost to a 86 the minute goal. At least it did not happen in overtime. That they keep on losing games late on is one thing, but their failure to score goals is really the saddest part. 0-0 or 0-1 does not matter much, at least the way I see it. So far Treviso have mustered 16 goals in 29 games. They have one dangerous player, Borriello, and he gets great reviews game after game, but he is out there on his own. Unknown (for me) players like Aquafresca and De Martino started last week and they will probably be part of the starting line up vs Cagliari as well. Both these players are only 19 years old. They miss the suspended Valdez. Gobbi will be back for the away side, maybe also Bega. Treviso are 1-2-11 at home and Cagliari are 1-2-12 away from home and it is difficult to be enthusiastic ahead of this Saturday encounter. OK, I support the away win. (2.50)
Chievo - Siena 2.11 - 4.33
Both these sides have overachieved this season, at least the way I see it. Chievo are 6-7-1 at home so far, and my suggestion has to be the home win or the draw. Chievo is set to be unchanged and Siena only miss Portanova and Colonnese, but all their key players will be available. Maybe the Siena strike force, Bogdani and Chiesa, are more potent than the Chievo duo, Amauri and Tiribocchi. OK, I choose the draw alternative. (3.10)
Fiorentina - Ascoli 1.54 - 8.00
Luca Toni will not play for his Fiorentina this week end, and we will see Jimenez joining Bojinov up front instead.. Without Toni, who is really interested in backing a low priced Fiorentina win? Not this writer anyway. I saw the Ascoli - Roma encounter last week and surely the newcomers are the team of the season in Serie A. Anonymous side more or less, but their football is both attractive and efficient. OK, their away performances are not equally strong, but that goes for most Serie A sides. Guana is back this week end, and he will replace the suspended Parola. Look out for this Foggia - exciting new player. No Toni, and I will invest some of my hard earned cash on the Ascoli win. (8.00)
Inter - Lazio 1.60 - 7.50
To suggest the home win is of course the normal thing to do here, but what about the almost bizarre tradition in this encounter. The last 10 home encounters for Inter against Lazio have ended 0-9-1. No home win! How about that! As Lazio for the moment are in great form, more reason to respect tradition on Sunday. Unfortunately Lazio will be without Di Canio. Behrami will return, but some doubts concerning Rocchi. No Stankovic for Inter. Could be that the Inter players will be a bit complacent ahead of this match, after their mid week win against Ajax. This time I back tradition and the draw. (3.75)
Lecce - Parma 2.62 - 3.05
To win this game is an absolute necessity for Lecce and I doubt that this pressure will be of much help to the strugglers. Top sides can handle pressure but certainly not bottom sides like Lecce. Maybe they have already given up and that could be their best chance. Vucinic should be fit and Lecce will be able to field their strongest side. Parma win some and lose some, as 3 players return from suspensions and 2 go the other way. I say - no big deal. They are on a great little run, Parma, just at the best of moments, with 3 wins in their last 4 games. The loss was against Fiorentina, 2-4, with Parma 2-0 up after half an hour. Two successive away wins, vs Treviso and Messina, both 1-0 wins, and both belong to the lucky category. Lecce have not won this fixture lately, (0-3-3) and I have my doubts about their winning ability on Sunday. The draw should be forbidden for Lecce, but these kind of fixtures often end with draws, no matter how useless the result is for, say Lecce. (3.10)
Reggina - Empoli 1.95 - 4.55
The Empoli home win against Chievo last week can never be understimated, and all of a sudden Empoli have as good a chance of staying in Serie A as a handful of other clubs, including Reggina. Well, not quite, as Reggina are 5 points ahead of Empoli. Anyway, a point in this encounter is within reach for the away side. Cagni will use a 4-3-2-1 formation, with Tavano and Vanucchi supporting Rigano. Almiron or Ficini from the start? Reggina have Lanzaro back in defence and will could use 3 strikers this time, Choutos, Cozza and Amoruso, or just Cozza and Amoruso. Cannot make up my mind this time.
Roma - Messina 1.55 - 8.50
Defensive problems for Roma this week end, with both Chivu and Mexes suspended. Not that easy for Messina either, with Donati, Zanchi and Coppola, all suspended. Muslimovic is fit again, and he could be used as the lone punter, with support from Sculli, D'Agostino and Floccari. Never been tried this formation, and it looks like a risk. Opposing Roma has been a good idea lately, and it is quite possible that Spallettis men will not be at their perfect best on Sunday, only a couple of days after their UEFA - cup fixture vs Middlesbrough. Messina fight for their existence and at this time of the season, teams like Messina have to pick up some surprising points here and there. I am not saying that this will happen on Sunday, but I am not that keen on the low priced Roma win.(1.55) Untried Messina offence? Yes, it is difficult to back the away win.
Sampdoria - Palermo 2.15 - 4.10
Time for Sampdoria to win again. (2.15) Some decent football lately by Novellino's footballers, but no points and what is worse, no goals either. They have lost three 0-1 games on the spin and last week was rather typical. They lost to Inter, but were probably worth a better result. Acute scoring problems, but good thing that Flachi will be fit to play on Sunday. He will join Colombo or Kutuzov up front. Sala will replace the injured Castellini. Palermo should have Corini ready to play again, but Terlizzi is suspended. A certain away fixture for Palermo in Germany, vs Schalke, could help Sampdoria this time, but they have to find the net of course. I choose the home win alternative. (2.15)
Udinese - Milan 5.50 - 1.75
Something for Udinese on Sunday night. Milan come without both Stam and Gattuso, while Udinese welcome back Obodo and Zenoni. The Udinese president made it clear this week, stating that this game with Milan is what matters this week, and not the UEFA - cup game vs Levski. Consequently Udinese fielded a makeshift side in Bulgaria. Can we not expect a somewhat indifferent Milan this time after their uninspiring 0-0 draw with Juventus? Or will their superior class make all the difference again? I have a hunch that Udinese will manage a positive result.
La Liga
Cadiz - Alaves 2.10 - 4.10
In this bottom of the table encounter I support the home win. (2.10) Maybe Alaves have appeared stronger these last weeks, but this week end they will be without numerous regulars, too many to ignore. Bodipo, Juanito, Sarriegui, Carpintero and Coromina are all suspended, and the big Australian striker Aloisi is a doubtful starter. Here we have some of the best Alaves players. Cadiz miss the suspended Varela and probably also Pavoni, but the good news is that Benjamin is expected back. Advantage Cadiz, and I back the home win. (2.10)
Espanyol - Osasuna 2.30 - 3.50
Home win! (2.30) Mostly an anti- Osasuna bet this one, as they also miss several key players on Sunday. Punal, Delporte, R Garcia, Moha, Ricardo and Sosa are all unavailable this time. I thought that both Delporte and Raul Garcia were outstanding against Barcelona last week, and they are not easily replaced, those two. Espanyol qualified for the Spanish cup final in mid week, by playing out a 0-0 draw away to La Coruna. Big achievement of course, to reach the cup final, and hopefully their players will be on fire again, come Sunday. Their defence was excellent vs La Coruna and both their key players de la Pena and Tamudo were in terrific form. Missing on Sunday are the suspended Costa and A Sa. Only Costa played in mid week. Yes, M Hurtado is out injured as well. Hopefully Espanyol have some energy left, enough to defeat a weakened Osasuna side. Home win! (2.30)
Villarreal - Atletico Madrid 2.30 - 3.25 - 3.50
I do not think that the draw can be avoided here. (3.25) Villarreal come to this game without their leader Riquelme, as well as Sorin and J Venta. Without Riquelme Villarreal lack that extra something and they just become a hard to beat side, but rather harmless offensively. Strong defence, strong collective, but without the cutting edge up front. Atletico have some of the strongest defenders in La Liga, and they are always tough to break down when they are in form, and they can be most effective away from home, playing the counter attack game. They miss the speedy Petrov for this match, still no Maxi, but Ibagaza is expected back. So no Petrov or Maxi to supply F Torres! Could be problems up front for Atletico this time. So two strong sides missing some influential players. Conclusion - the draw! (3.25)
Real Madrid - Real Betis 1.43 - 10.00
I get no reward for backing the low priced home win, but what else can I do? Betis could not defeat the bottom side Malaga last week, and last night they lost to Steaua Bukarest, 0-3, using their strongest side. Terrible, terrible results and now off to the Bernabeu Stadium! Missing this time for sure, the suspended Melli. Real Madrid have Gravesen, Beckham, Ronaldo and Casillas back in training again, and should be able to field their best possible line up. Home win, or an earth quake. (1.43)
Real Sociedad - Barcelona 6.23 - 1.62
Away win, I guess. (1.62) Barcelona had a bad day at the office last week and lost to Osasuna, and I expect Rijkaard's side to come fully focused this week end. Lightning does not strike twice, does it? Only Motta is missing, and he will be replaced in the squad by Gabri. Edmilson is not suspended, and will be among the starting eleven as usual. Both A Novo and De Paula available for Sociedad and they have no significant worries ahead of this clash. Away win! (1.62)
The Championship
Crystal Palace - Ipswich 1.80 - 5.00
Home win, but I admit, not a remarkable price. (1.80) I was impressed by the C Palace display against Stoke earlier this week. Full control for C P, with the speedy Andy Johnson a constant threat up front. There you have a striker playing in the wrong division. Freedman, Reich and Popovic are available again, but they will have to be content with bench roles, as C P will field the same side tomorrow as vs Stoke. Ipswich have to confront this difficult away game without at least 3 regulars, Naylor, Juan and Westlake, and there are also doubts concerning de Vos, Barron and A Lee. Should be a home win, this one! (1.80)
Coventry - Leeds 2.70 - 2.60
You still get these big prices on Coventry. (2.70) They have won their last 6 home games, with S United their latest victims. Something has happened, because this Coventry side was always one of the most erratic in the division. OK, it was easier to back Coventry last week, as their opponents, S United were/are going through a difficult spell at the moment. Cannot say that about Leeds - unbeaten in 9 league games now. Coventry come without Dennis Wise and Leeds miss S Gregan. Hutchison or Thornton in for Wise and Kilgallon probably instead of Gregan. I will back this home win (2.70), but I will combine this winning bet with an alternative one - the 2-2 result. My respect for Leeds deserve this bet. Coventry always score at the Ricoh Stadium and Leeds seldom return home with an empty score sheet.
Sheffield W - Preston 3.25 - 2.30
I make an attempt with the home win. (3.25) S W more or less outplayed QPR last week, but had their customary problems in the final third. (1-1) The week before that they totally dominated Cardiff in the second half, but once again, no reward. Tomorrow both Rocastle and J Hills could come in contention, but probably not Mac Lean. Preston are without their leading striker Nugent, and most likely C Davidson and Sedgwick. No need to fear Preston away from home! They have drawn 4 of their last 5 away games, all 0-0. Could be that S W finally will put away some of their chances tomorrow. The price is the right one! (3.25)
French league
Sochaux - Lyon 5.00 - 1.90
Away win! (1.90) One of the best Lyon players, Govou, has been out of action lately, but tomorrow he is ready to make his come back. Still no Cacapa and Reveillere, but they played for the reserves in mid week and are close to first team action. Tiago is a slight doubt. Strong Lyon side tomorrow, as most weeks of the year. For Sochaux Diawara will definitely play, but still no Brunel. Sochaux will basically come with the same squad that lost to Monaco last week. (1-4) Lyon then! (1.90)
Ajaccio - Monaco 3.20 - 2.50
Away win, number 2! (2.50) Great display by the Monegasque side last week, and it makes you wonder if they will continue to perform at that level. They have the players for it. Both Di Viao and Chevanton were on the score sheet vs Sochaux, and I guess that there is no need for a fit again Vieri this time. Expect the same line up, or will Plasil be fit to join the squad? Ajaccio look demoralised at the moment after their upsurge a couple of weeks ago. New manager and all that, but the positive effect has vanished. I guess that most of the players have realised the inevitable - going down. Not their manager however. Danjou is suspended tomorrow and A Luiz is s doubt. Still no Rocchi or Robin, but maybe Djodic could be ready. I back the away win! (2.50)
Metz - Rennes 2.60 - 2.90
Away win, number 3! (2.90) I support the free scoring Rennes side, with 13 goals in their last 4 matches. Utaka has been out for 2 weeks, but he is back for this game. He scored two successive hat tricks before his injury. Only Rennes casualty is A Frei. Metz miss Pimenov and Djiba but could have their defender Meniri back. Alioui is considered a doubt. Metz are desperate for points, but Rennes have both class and form. Away win! (2.90)
Chris.
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