Weekend soccer

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Serie A

Milan - Inter 2.55 - 3.20
Milan face Barcelona on Tuesday. Could this coming semi-final possibly help Inter to a derby win on Friday night? I do not think so. There is no way that the Milan players will overlook this derby. What would the reaction of the Milans fans be, if their players gave a half-hearted derby display? At last Milan have a fully fit squad, with all their players back in training. Stam will not play vs. Inter, but probably Ambrosini will do in midfield. Inzaghi has had some bout of fever, and we will see Shevchenko and Gilardino up front this time. Inter miss the suspended J Cruz and the injured Veron. Stankovic and Adriano will be available on Friday. It remains to be seen whether Adriano will make the starting line up this time. I take it for granted that he will feature from the start. Inter were second best to Ascoli in the first half last week, but with Figo and Mihajlovic coming on in the second half, Inter managed to change the outlook of the game and finished 2-1 winners. Mihajlovic, it breaks my heart to admit it! The outcome? I do not think that Milan will lose this derby.

Cagliari - Juventus 5.10 - 2.00
They could not hold on to the their 1-0 lead, Cagliari, at home to Palermo. They were punished in the 94th minute, a cruel blow for a club in desperate need of all the points it can get. Every game is a cup game for Cagliari, they cannot afford to lose any home matches, and it does not matter if Juventus are their opponents. The important Langella is back for Cagliari, and they will be able to use the Esposito - Suazo- Langella combination again. First choice keeper Chimenti is out injured, however. Juventus miss the suspended Thuram and the injured duo, Buffon and Trezeguet, but have Cannavaro and Del Piero ready to play. Juventus could have been down, or should have been down, 0-2 against Fiorentina last week, after the first half that is, but in the second they took over, and the 1-1 result was logical after all. It looks like they are playing, using their reserve engine right now. They will probably do enough to achieve another draw. The price is 3.10.

Chievo - Messina 1.90 - 4.60
I thought that Chievo were quite good despite losing 1-4 to Milan. Despite Milan dominating towards the end, Chievo played some good stuff for an hour or so. At home, Chievo have been strong this season, with 8-7-1 this far. They have all their players available for this match, apart from Giunti. Messina miss a trio of players, Coppola, D'Agostino and Zanchi. First win for the new Messina boss Ventura last week, 3-1 at home to Treviso. Two of the goals were somewhat lucky, deflected, but the win was immensely important for the club. Messina are probably favourites to go down, and they need points in games like this one to avoid relegation. At the end of the day, I would still choose the home win (1.90).

Empoli - Siena 2.90 - 7.00
A derby game, and all the bookmakers have decided that this will be a draw. The best price available is 1.83! Looking at the match from an objective stand point, however, it looks like a certain home winner. Empoli are in top form, with 4-1-0 in their last 5 games, while Siena have mustered 1 win (at home to Treviso) in their last 6 matches. Empoli miss the injured Pozzi, and Siena are without Volpato, Negro and D' Aversa, but their important playmaker Locatelli will be fit to play again. I have learnt not to go against these "arranged" draws, and I have to skip the home win.

Lazio - Livorno 1.61 - 7.50
Terrific Lazio form, and they look like reaching a place in Europe next season. Excellent job by their coach, and for the time being they play some attractive football, scoring freely. Conceding goals as well though, just as us spectactors want it, especially if you like to play overs. Livorno, well, they have not won a game since the second world war. Lazio have their previously suspended striker Pandev back for his match, but they will be without Di Canio. One of them usually plays from the start, alongside Rocchi. Siviglia is also sidelined. Livorno have no worries ahead of this fixture, besides their dreadful form. Lazio have both motivation and form - Livorno have none. Much as the lousy price indicates (1.61).

Lecce - Udinese 3.25 - 2.40
Some important absentees for the struggling home side. Vucinic, Ledesma and Cassetti are out of this game, and this is a massive blow to Lecce. Udinese miss their suspended striker Iaquinta with Rossini deputising. Bertotto is an injury doubt. One has to say, that Udinese got their new coach Galeone just in time. With him they have won two 2-0 games on the bounce, and no one is even thinking about relegation for the club. Still, they need more points to survive. In midweek, Galeone used a make shift side against Inter in the cup and Udinese reached a creditable 2-2 draw. The Lecce mission looks kind of hopeless and now these missing players. I support the away win (2.40).

Palermo - Roma 3.30 - 2.40
The cup semi-final in midweek between these two sides was won by Roma, 1-0. It was an evenly matched affair and Palermo could easily have managed a draw. They were denied a stonewall penalty in the first half, when Tommasi handled in the penalty area. One setback for the home side, as it looks like Corini will be missing on Saturday. No way that I can accept Roma as favourites away to Palermo. With Palermo winning the cup semi-final, I would have looked at this league game from a different view point. But now Palermo will not be generous in any way, on the contrary, they are of course intent on revenge and looking for the necessary points to reach Europe next season. Their president has stated that hell is awaiting Roma! The above prices make me suggest the home win (3.30).

Reggina - Ascoli 1.95 - 5.50
This ought to be a win for the highly motivated home side (1.95). It is not that I underestimate Ascoli, but at this time of the season, motivation so often decides a fixture such as this one, and getting points in your home matches is essential to stay up. Losing 0-4 to their good friends Parma was a bitter pill for Reggina, and I guess that people much more expert than me raised an eyebrow or two at that result. Franceschini and Tedesco will be missing for Reggina, and Ascoli are without the suspended Guana and the injured Domizzi. Time for Bjelanovic to start up front again. Ascoli have been hit with some kind of flu problem this week, but it should be OK on Saturday. I look upon both these teams as typical home teams. Home win (1.95).

Sampdoria - Parma 2.10 - 5.60
The Livorno slump has not surprised me, whereas Sampdoria's slump has. A quality side, now without a win in some 9 or 10 games? It is hard to fathom. They have been without the two strikers Bonazzoli and Bazzini for ages now, but surely this downward trend has nothing to do with those two. OK, Sampdoria could definitely use a fit again Bonazzoli, but it will not happen. I do not know how many points Parma were behind Sampdoria after the Christmas break, (at least 15), but as a matter of fact Parma just passed Sampdoria in the table last week. Their coach was on the verge of being sacked more than once, but now he is a real Parma hero. Sampdoria ought to be the more motivated side on Saturday, but I think that I have to wait on backing Sampdoria until they have broken their negative trend. A no bet game.

Treviso - Fiorentina 11.50 - 1.33
The best Treviso player, Borriello, is expected back, but Guiliatto, Sereni and Pinga will not be available. No Ujfalusi nor Pazzini for Fiorentina. Young Jimenez taking the penalty at Delle Alpi last week was a strange desicion, but Luca Toni has obviously missed too many this season, and he was not interested this time. Hard on Jimenez maybe! Fiorentina have to win this fixture and Treviso have nothing really to play for. Conclusion: the away win? Sure thing, but it must be forbidden to use this price. (1.33).


The Premiership

Arsenal - W B A 1.28 - 13.00
WBA have been unlucky in their last away fixtures. Well, not only bad luck of course, poor sides often have scoring problems, do they not? Anyway, they were clearly the better side, both away to Birmingham and Aston Villa, but had to settle for draws. WBA probably deserved a draw away to Tottenham, but a late blunder by their goalkeeper killed that hope. Arsenal play against Villarreal in a few days, and could WBA take advantage of this fact? In theory, yes, but I have my doubts. Arsenal could only draw against Portsmouth in midweek: the main reason - Adebayor's incompetence. The striker missed two absolute sitters, the kind of chances you normally not miss on this level. I can not see Wenger using his "gala side" tomorrow, with the Villarreal fixture round the corner. Surely Henry will be rested. Hleb, Gilberto and Fabregas did not play vs. Portsmouth, but maybe they will tomorrow, with Wenger all the time planning for the semi final with Villarreal. Under these circumstances I avoid betting on this low priced Arsenal win, (1.28) and maybe I consider including WBA on the Asian market. Just maybe though!

Bolton - Chelsea 5.50 - 1.70
Bolton lost again, away to Liverpool at the weekend. It was their fourth successive league loss, and it is the first really bad Bolton trend this season. Unfortunately, it comes at the very worst time, and their dreams of Europe are now slowly vanishing. They had a good first half vs. Liverpool, and there was nothing wrong particularly with their overall display. Chelsea murdered West Ham, despite the fact that Maniche was sent off. I thought that the West Ham players looked more or less shell-shocked, but I will not degrade the Chelsea performance. Their 4-1 win against West Ham will probably be remembered as a classic, at least for the Chelsea fans. It was the first time that we actually saw Drogba and Crespo together up front. This one? My respect for Bolton at the Reebok Stadium is such that I could never, under any circumstances, back this 1.70 offered on the away win.

Everton - Tottenham 2.70 - 2.75
Due to the motivational factor, I have to choose the away win (2.75). I can not say that I trust Tottenham away from White Hart Lane, but the Everton season probably ended when they lost to Liverpool some weeks ago. Their draws with Sunderland and Charlton do not exactly contradict this statement. E. Davids only featured on the bench last week, and there is no denying that Tottenham have some excellent midfielders these days. With Robbie Keane playing his best football ever, the goals keep coming on a regular basis, and there is no guarantee that Arsenal will catch Tottenham. Tottenham miss the suspended M. Dawson. Away win. (2.75).

Fulham - Charlton 2.20 - 3.75
When I saw the Fulham and Sunderland starting line-ups last week, I immediately made some bets on the Fulham away win. They took a swift lead, but unfortunately the game was abandoned. Sunderland had no team at all, and Fulham started with both Bouba Diop and A. Niemi, plus all of their strong offensive players. I expect the same side tomorrow, and I have no problems backing the home win (2.20). M. Brown is missing for Fulham. Having seen Charlton lose the FA Cup replay to Middlesbrough, I can understand all the recent Charlton 0-0 draws. They have to play a defensive game with their present squad. Fulham will win this London derby! (2.20).

Newcastle - Wigan 1.95 - 4.25
Happy Newcastle supporters again, after the two recent wins, at home to Tottenham and away to Middlesbrough. I do not rate Newcastle as automatic winners against Wigan, but I guess that I choose the home win after all. Both Babayaro and K. Dyer are fit to play. A strange team, Wigan, as they prefer to play away from home, and only Chelsea and M. United have won more away games than them. Camara only featured as a substitute last week, but I should think that he will start this time alongside Jason Roberts up front. Newcastle are expected to be unchanged. Home win, then! (1.95).

Portsmouth - Middlesbrough 1.80 - 5.00
Boro manager McClaren has openly declared that his side will focus on the remaining cup games this season and that he will field alternative sides in the league. Sounds like a good opportunity for Portsmouth to bring 3 necessary points to their fans (1.80). I take it for granted that players such as Viduka, Hasselbaink and Southgate will be rested tomorrow, and that Boro will come to Fratton Park with a decent squad, but stil an A-B squad. The Portsmouth goal scorer, Lua Lua, suffered an injury in midweek, when he made his customary somersaults, but he will be fit to play football this weekend. Home win, but a truly disappointing price (1.80).

West Ham - Manchester City 2.20 - 3.75
I wonder how the West Ham players will react, after their big loss at Stamford Bridge last week. Outclassed in such a manner against a 10 man Chelsea side, almost humiliated! Not much at stake here, and West Ham could already be thinking of their coming FA Cup semi-final. City have been utterly poor away from home all season, but I guess that their loss against Tottenham last week was an improvement on their recent poor matches. Still no Barton for City, and both Reyna and Sibierski are injury doubts. For West Ham, Reo-Coker, A. Ferdinand and Etherington are struggling with injuries, and one or two could be rested. I have no winner in this game and I support the draw. (3.30).

Blackburn - Liverpool 3.35 - 2.40
Tough game for the Reds, but I still support the away win. (2.40). You know what you get from Liverpool right now, and their contribution usually is enough to win their league games. OK, if Bellamy will be as effective for Blackburn as last week at Portsmouth, even Liverpool could have problems. Problems are not the same as losing and I think that Liverpool will always score one more goal than Blackburn. Sissoko is back for Liverpool. Away win. (2.40).

Aston Villa - Birmingham 2.55 - 3.25
Poor supporters! Talk about a depressing derby fixture. Villa happen to be 7 points ahead of Birmingham at the moment, but they are by no means the stronger side, nor the weaker either. I would say, these two are equally poor! It seems to me that to avoid losing is the best that Villa can hope for, and the same applies for Birmingham. Are we expecting a 0-0 draw? James Milner should make a welcome return for Villa and hopefully skipper Mellberg and G. Barry as well. Both M. Upson and N. Butt back in contention for Birmingham. Birmingham have found some previously hidden strength, well demonstrated in their last 3 league games. Strong draws with Chelsea and Wigan and in between a home win against Bolton. Only 1 goal conceded in those 3 games, and we are talking about the same side that conceded 7 against M. United a couple of weeks ago. X2 for me, but I support the draw. (3.25).


The Championship

Leicester - Preston 2.50 - 2.85
My pick will be the home win (2.50). Nothing is really at stake here. Come on! Preston are 10 points ahead of Wolves with 4 rounds to go. Leicester enjoy their football right now, and there is no risk that Kelly' s footballers will not give 100% against Preston. The Leicester players and their supporters have endured a terrible season, but when Levein got the sack and Kelly took charge, night became day, so to speak. Leicester are one of the few teams that do not want the season to end. They gave C. Palace no chance last week, with their on loan winger J. Welsh on the score sheet. Tomorrow Leicester miss the suspended defender P. Mc Carthy, but hope that R Stearman will be fit to play. Preston miss M Stewart and B 'O'Neil this time and C Davies is a doubt. J Jarrett back. Preston are the kind of team that need to be fully motivated to perform, and I predict problems for this play off team tomorrow. Home win. (2.50).

Sheffield W - Norwich 2.37 - 3.25
I support the home win (2.37). Norwich have struggled away from home lately, so what can we expect from Norwich this time, when they have nothing at all to play for. Here we probably have a team longing for the season to end. Poor Norwich season, and I can not imagine that coach Worthington will lead Norwich for more than the remaining 4 matches. It looks like their striker McKenzie will be missing tomorrow. Sheffield Wed are far from great, but we do not have to doubt their motivation ahead of this game. They are 5 points ahead of Crewe and most likely need some additional points to stay up. Sheffield Wed defeated Preston and Wolves just recently, but lost to Crewe last week, so you never really know. The way I see it, a 100% fighting effort is enough to beat a demoralised Norwich side. Home win. (2.37).

Hull - Burnley 2.10 - 3.50
Home win (2.10). That is what I like about Hull - you always get a big-hearted effort form Taylor's players, well exemplified last week, when Hull were 0-2 down away to Sheffield United. They fought back and were full value for their 2-2 draw, when S United hit them late in the game. It has happened before with Hull. They never seem to know when they are defeated. They will have a great next season. J. Welsh, M. Lynch and A. Rogers available again for Hull. Burnley had a lucky win against QPR last week. It was a poor game, typical end of the season display from both parts. Burnley have been terribly poor on their travels this season, and I do not think that they will offer that much resistance in this fixture. Home win! (2.10).

Stoke - Southampton 2.10 - 3.75
Home win! (2.10). Excellent Stoke results these last weeks. Tricky away fixtures against Leeds, QPR and Ipswich, but Stoke picked up 7 points. In their last home fixture they drew with Sheffield United, with Stoke clearly the stronger side. Southampton have just secured their Championship status and coach Burley is indicating that he will give youth a chance in the remaining fixtures. Tomorrow a 16 year old left back might play, as well as a 18 year old striker who may play some part. Their defender Higginbotham out again. Stoke were without Skoko, Buxton and Sidibe last week and they could be missing again. I choose the home win alternative. (2.10).


La Liga

Getafe - Real Madrid 4.50 - 1.95
I just can not ignore this price on the Getafe win (4.50). I mean, Getafe come to this Madrid derby in high spirits after 3 wins on the bounce, with 2 of those wins away from home. Real Madrid just can not maintain their "best" level these days. If you look upon their last 5 matches for instance: a 4-0 win against La Coruna and a 1-1 draw with Barcelona - both strong results, but before and after, draws with Betis, Zaragoza and Real Sociedad. Last week their horrible draw with Real Sociedad, Ronaldo scorer of the Real Madrid goal. Unfortunately they have lost Ronaldo to an injury, and they will also be missing the suspended Guti. Getafe won this fixture last season. Home win! (4.50).

Barcelona - Villarreal 1.62 - 7.00
Interesting match between the two Champions League semi finalists. I originally thought of a draw result, (3.75), when I heard that Ronaldinho will not play for Barca on Friday. I changed my mind when I found out that Villarreal have left out Riquelme, Sorin, Forlan, Tacchinardi and Viera from their squad. Too many good footballers missing for Villarreal, and I guess that they will not get their 0-0 result under these circumstances. Puyol will play for Barcelona and Marquez is recalled to their squad, and Barca definitely look strong enough to win this game. I would have preferred this 3.75 on the draw, but the home win it is. (1.62).

Atletico Madrid - Atletic Bilbao 1.95 - 4.40
Home win (1.95). A Bilbao have squad problems, with Arduriz, Gurpegui and Exteberria definitely sidelined this week end and furthermore Orbaiz, Yeste and Casas are injury doubts. All important players for the Basque side. It looks like Maxi Rodriguez will finally be able to make his come back for Atletico, but not from the start. Play maker Ibagaza is considered a major doubt. He had to leave the Atletetico game with Espanyol last week late in the first half. He has returned to training, but as I said, doubtful this week end. Still, I give my vote to the home win. (1.95).

French League

Marseille - Nancy 1.70 - 6.50
Nancy have not won anything for ages, they are safe in the table and they play the Coupe de la Ligue final next week against Nice. My conclusion is that they will not risk too much here. Nothing exceptional in their squad, with only the suspended defender Lecluse missing. Marseille miss Taiwo, but welcome back Oruma. Striker Pagis is considered a slight doubt. Marseille knocked out Lyon in a cup game in mid week. Great achievement, of course, and I expect their second win of the week tomorrow. (1.70).

P S G - Lyon 2.80 - 2.85
I support PSG. (2.80). I guess that Lyon will have problems in their remaining fixtures. League champions already, but knocked out of the Champions league and the Coupe de France just recently - what can motivate the Lyon players from now on? The World Cup, probably! PSG have hit their season best form and they always were reliable at their own place. They are 11-3-3 at home, despite the fact that the main part of the season has been hugely disappointing. Important defender Yepes is back from his suspension and hopefully J Rothen will be fit to play. He could not play against Lille in midweek. Home win! (2.80).

-Chris