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LEWIS TO SILENCE TIFOSI

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By Tom Millard


BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
1pt Lewis Hamilton to take pole position at 3/1 (General). Four poles already this season; can get the best out of the softer tyres.
1pt Robert Kubica to win without McLaren and Ferrari at 15/8 (Skybet). Nicked third here last year and looks fair value in effectively a two-horse race.


Ferrari's convincing one-two in Turkey two weeks ago may have struck viewers as a crushingly dominant performance.


But the result, in which Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen finished over 20 seconds ahead of McLaren's Fernando Alonso, betrayed the fact that for most of the race Lewis Hamilton was able to hang onto the pair's coat-tails.


Hamilton, whose final qualifying lap would have earned him pole position had he not been carrying more fuel than both Ferraris, was jumped off the line by Raikkonen, who shadowed Massa to the chequered flag in a race the Finn admitted was "boring".


But had Hamilton's right-front tyre not exploded in spectacular style in turn nine as his second pitstop approached, the team's inventive strategy involving a long middle stint may have brought him out ahead of Raikkonen in second place.


An extrapolation of Hamilton's lap times suggests that he would probably just have missed out on splitting the two red cars, but the fact remains that if McLaren had fuelled his car for one less lap in Q3, he would have taken pole position, almost certainly retained his lead on the clean side of the racetrack, and then been able to control the race from the front.


On such things championships are won and lost.


Hamilton's eventual fifth place means that he remains five points ahead of Alonso in the championship (the gap would have been eight if not for the Bridgestone blowout) and respectively 15 and 16 points ahead of Massa and Raikkonen, with 50 points left to play for.


Monza has traditionally been Ferrari territory, the Scuderia winning four of the last five races at the circuit, and Raikkonen and Massa rightfully head the betting markets ahead of the weekend.


The F2007 has tended to be strong on tracks requiring a low-downforce set-up, and with Monza recognised as the calendar's fastest track, the team have every reason to be confident.


But the Ferrari is at its best on high-speed, sweeping corners which demand high levels of lateral grip.


While Curva Grande and the Lesmos will flatter the wonderfully-balanced Ferrari, there are also two second-gear chicanes which should play into the hands of the McLaren and its excellent low-speed traction.


And in fact McLaren dominated the recent four-day test session at the circuit, one of their three drivers posting the fastest time on all four days.


This indicates that silver cars could well turn out to be just as strong as their rivals this weekend, although Massa was keen to downplay the significance of last week's times.


"In testing I've often lacked the conditions to run at my best," he claimed, "but we set out best lap times at the beginning of the runs, with a lot of fuel, while they set theirs at the end of the runs."


With the special low-downforce packages of both cars looking very closely matched, it could turn out to be the case that McLaren once again have a slight edge over a single flying lap, but Ferrari may be a fraction faster over longer runs.


And with all four drivers so evenly matched this means that pole position will once again be crucial.


Overtaking is possible at Monza for a car with a straightline speed advantage but, as always, a balanced set-up is necessary to be quick both on the long straights and in the slower corners.


With the Ferrari appearing to have a slight advantage off the line, combined with it being more likely to use the more grippy, softer tyre for the opening stint, means it will be crucial for McLaren to lock out the front row.


There is every chance that their drivers may adopt a more aggressive, lower-fuel strategy in qualifying.


Hamilton finds it easier to get the best performance from the softer rubber which gives up the most grip in qualifying, while Alonso has played it conservative over the last two races in choosing to qualify on the harder compound tyre.


This makes Hamilton look reasonable value at 3/1 to take his fifth pole position of the season.


Behind what should be a Ferrari-McLaren lock-out of the podium positions, expect BMW Sauber to be the best of the rest.


The Swiss-German outfit have been strong on low-downforce circuits this season, scoring a second place with Nick Heidfeld in Montreal.


And it was this race last season in which Robert Kubica finished on the podium, the Pole announcing his emergence in spectacular style.


The last five races have yielded a perfect ten points finishes from the pair, including a podium in Hungary for Heidfeld, but the layers are fully aware of their threat, pricing them each at around 1/5 for another top eight placing.


But Kubica looks backable at 15/8 with Skybet to finish as 'best of the rest' behind the Ferrari and McLaren quartet.


With value at a premium at present, check back on Saturday afternoon for potentially more bets after the qualifying sessions.