There is no such thing as true probability. Probability is merely a concept that humans created to assign numerical likelihoods to situations with multiple "possible" outcomes. With the right information, one can calculate the exact outcome of any scenario. For example, let's take the flip of a coin. The probability of heads or tails are equal with each being at 50%. However, if one were to gauge the initial vertical velocity of the coin, use that to calculate the exact amount of time that it stays in the air, and figure out the amount of flips it makes per second, the exact outcome can be calculated. For everything we call "purely chance," there is a designated outcome. In a coin flip, someone, is doomed to lose from the beginning, meaning that the person had a 0% chance of winning from the get go.
The reason I am talking about probability is to relate to the infinitely small probably argument that creationists use to "prove" that the universe and life as we know it must have been designed. However, this is fallacious in many ways. First, an infinitely small probability isn't 0, meaning that they can't be certain that they're correct and they're not proving anything. But this is the least of the argument's problems.
The universe has certain scientific laws (law of gravity, law of conservation of energy, etc), which allow us to calculate certain outcomes with the proper scientific knowledge and analysis, meaning that events are essentially destined to happen. Creationists refer to how if these chemicals hadn't combined in this certain way, forming this random protein or how if the distance from the Earth to the sun was any different, we would all freeze to death or roast. And since all of these conditions could be different in some many ways, these events were of an infinitely small probability and therefore couldn't have happened. Therefore, we default to a supernatural explanation: That God created us. This is wrong. These conditions are all so perfect because they were bound to happen based on the laws of science. All of this must have happened otherwise we wouldn't be here to argue it.
Let's say I have a die and I roll it 5 times. No matter what combination I get, the "probably" of that combination is (1/6) to the fifth power, since I would need a certain number each time in order to get that combination. Let's say I roll a 3, 1, 6, 4, and finally, a 5. Nothing special right? But wasn't the chance of that happening only (1/6) to the fifth? That's pretty low. And if I keep rolling, the probably of whatever combination I get keeps shrinking, eventually going down to what is essentially 0. Does this mean that God or some other supernatural force must be setting this up, that the die was "designed" to roll this way? No. The die was doomed to roll some combination and I happened to roll whatever I rolled. So why are certain combinations special? If you rolled what I rolled the first 5 times, the 3, 1, 6, 4, and 5, you wouldn't care; it's just a random assortment of numbers. But if you roll five 6's, you would suspect that something is going on even though according to probability, those five 6's and that random combination I rolled have the same probably of occuring. The reason you suspect that something is going on is because five 6's is a special combination. However, special is relative. For people, special combinations are those that form a pattern such as a repeated number or a consecutive series. But in reality and the world of mathematics, they aren't special. They're like any other possible combination because they all have the same probability of occurence. So why is the certain combination of conditions our universe has deemed so special by creationists, special? Answer? It isn't. It's just what happened to happen, and it was determined by the fundamentals of science that govern our universe.
Posted by Gear61
The reason I am talking about probability is to relate to the infinitely small probably argument that creationists use to "prove" that the universe and life as we know it must have been designed. However, this is fallacious in many ways. First, an infinitely small probability isn't 0, meaning that they can't be certain that they're correct and they're not proving anything. But this is the least of the argument's problems.
The universe has certain scientific laws (law of gravity, law of conservation of energy, etc), which allow us to calculate certain outcomes with the proper scientific knowledge and analysis, meaning that events are essentially destined to happen. Creationists refer to how if these chemicals hadn't combined in this certain way, forming this random protein or how if the distance from the Earth to the sun was any different, we would all freeze to death or roast. And since all of these conditions could be different in some many ways, these events were of an infinitely small probability and therefore couldn't have happened. Therefore, we default to a supernatural explanation: That God created us. This is wrong. These conditions are all so perfect because they were bound to happen based on the laws of science. All of this must have happened otherwise we wouldn't be here to argue it.
Let's say I have a die and I roll it 5 times. No matter what combination I get, the "probably" of that combination is (1/6) to the fifth power, since I would need a certain number each time in order to get that combination. Let's say I roll a 3, 1, 6, 4, and finally, a 5. Nothing special right? But wasn't the chance of that happening only (1/6) to the fifth? That's pretty low. And if I keep rolling, the probably of whatever combination I get keeps shrinking, eventually going down to what is essentially 0. Does this mean that God or some other supernatural force must be setting this up, that the die was "designed" to roll this way? No. The die was doomed to roll some combination and I happened to roll whatever I rolled. So why are certain combinations special? If you rolled what I rolled the first 5 times, the 3, 1, 6, 4, and 5, you wouldn't care; it's just a random assortment of numbers. But if you roll five 6's, you would suspect that something is going on even though according to probability, those five 6's and that random combination I rolled have the same probably of occuring. The reason you suspect that something is going on is because five 6's is a special combination. However, special is relative. For people, special combinations are those that form a pattern such as a repeated number or a consecutive series. But in reality and the world of mathematics, they aren't special. They're like any other possible combination because they all have the same probability of occurence. So why is the certain combination of conditions our universe has deemed so special by creationists, special? Answer? It isn't. It's just what happened to happen, and it was determined by the fundamentals of science that govern our universe.
Posted by Gear61
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