Mielenkiintoista

Tietokonesimulaatiot ovat mielenkiintoisia ja kertovat teoreettisia raameja kuinka nopeasti geneettinen materiaali voi levitä populaatioissa. Ne ovat kuitenkin vain simulaatioita.

Kuten wikipediakin tuosta simulaatiosta toteaa:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Most_recent_common_ancestor
"as historical societies in central Africa, Australia and remote islands in the South Pacific, the human MRCA was generally assumed to have lived in the Upper Paleolithic period. With the advent of mathematical models and computer simulations, some researchers have argued that the MRCA of all humans lived remarkably recently, between 2,000 and 4,000 years ago. Rohde, Olson and Chang (2004), for example, constructed a mathematical model that considered the tendency of individuals to choose mates from the same group, as well as the relative geographical isolation of such groups.[4] The mathematical model with one particular set of parameters showed that the MRCA lived about the year 300 BC and yielded an identical ancestor point (IAP) of 3,000 BC.

The same 2004 Rohde paper also presented results from a computer program based on Monte Carlo simulation designed to overcome some of the limits of the mathematical model. The program took into consideration realistic population substructure and migration patterns, allowing the researchers to simulate historical human demography. A conservative simulation yielded a mean MRCA date of 1,415 BC and a mean IA date of 5,353 BC. A less conservative simulation gave an MRCA date of AD 55 and an IA date of 2,158 BC.[4]

An explanation of this recent MRCA date is that, while humanity's MRCA was indeed a Paleolithic individual up to early modern times, the European explorers of the 16th and 17th centuries would have fathered enough offspring so that some "mainland" ancestry by today pervades remote habitats. The possibility remains that an isolated population with no recent "mainland" admixture persists somewhere, which would immediately push back the date of humanity's MRCA by many millennia. While simulations help estimate probabilities, the question can be resolved only by genetically testing every living human individual."