BRICS-maat 2025. GoBRICS

Kopuklalla+on+taas+menossa+maaninen+kausi?BRICS+ei+ole+mikään+järjestä+vaan+pelkästään+kasa+kirjaimia,+joka+ilmaisee+eri+maita.Mikään+menestystarina+ei+BRICS+ole+ollut+Kopukan+luulosta+poiketen.Has+the+Brics+bubble+burst?Brazil,+Russia,+India,+China+and+South+Africa+seem+to+be+failing+to+justify+predictions+of+21st+century+dominationThe+political+crisis+in+Brazil+over+economic+mismanagement+and+high-level+corruption,+likely+to+come+to+a+head+next+week,+has+reinforced+the+fashionable+view,+popular+among+western+governments+and+businesses,+that+the+Brics+bubble+has+burst.Members+of+the+exclusive+Brics+club+of+leading+developing+countries+–+Brazil,+Russia,+India,+China+and+South+Africa+–+are+failing+to+justify+predictions+that,+separately+and+together,+they+will+dominate+the+21st+century+world,+or+so+the+argument+goes.The+Brics+concept,+plus+acronym,+was+dreamed+up+in+2001+by+Jim+O’Neill,+chairman+of+Goldman+Sachs+Asset+Management.+He+highlighted+the+combined+potential+of+non-western+powers+controlling+one+quarter+of+the+world’s+land+mass+and+accounting+for+more+than+40%+of+its+population.O’Neill’s+idea+morphed+into+a+formal+association,+with+South+Africa+joining+the+original+Bric+group+in+2011.+The+five+nations,+with+a+joint+estimated+GDP+of+$16tn,+set+up+their+own+development+bank+in+parallel+to+the+US-dominated+IMF+and+World+Bank+and+hold+summits+rivalling+the+G7+forum.+Their+next+meeting+will+be+in+Goa,+India,+in+October.But+ambitious+plans+to+create+an+alternative+reserve+currency+to+the+US+dollar+and+challenge+American+dominance+in+IT+and+global+security+surveillance+have+come+to+little.+Meanwhile,+adverse+economic+conditions+compounded+by+falling+global+demand+and+lower+oil+and+commodity+prices+are+taking+their+toll.Last+November,+Goldman+Sachs,+where+the+idea+originated,+closed+its+Bric+investment+fund+after+assets+reportedly+declined+in+value+by+88%+from+a+2010+peak.+The+bank+told+the+US+securities+and+exchange+commission+it+did+not+expect+“significant+asset+growth+in+the+foreseeable+future”.“The+promise+of+Bric’s+rapid+and+sustainable+growth+has+been+challenged+very+much+for+the+last+five+years+or+so,”+Jorge+Mariscal,+the+chief+investment+officer+of+emerging+markets+at+UBS+Wealth+Management,+told+Bloomberg+Business.+“The+Bric+concept+was+popular.+But+nothing+is+eternal.”The+problems+facing+Brics+members+are+remarkably+similar,+even+though+each+country+is+different.+Russia+and+Brazil+have+both+fallen+into+recession,+while+China,+the+principal+engine+of+world+growth,+has+seen+a+sharp+contraction+in+overall+economic+activity.AdvertisementBrazil’s+economic+woes+have+been+compounded+by+scandals+that+could+yet+force+the+resignation+or+impeachment+of+Dilma+Rousseff,+the+country’s+president,+and+the+trial+of+her+predecessor,+Luiz+Inácio+Lula+da+Silva+(Lula).+With+about+a+quarter+of+members+of+Brazil’s+congress+facing+some+form+of+criminal+investigation,+the+crisis+has+become+structural+and+existential+in+scope,+raising+worries+about+the+durability+of+Brazil’s+young+democracy.Identical+concerns+have+arisen+in+South+Africa+where+Jacob+Zuma,+the+country’s+president,+and+the+ruling+African+National+Congress+government+are+beset+by+allegations+of+corruption+and+malfeasance.+Big+questions+surround+the+influence+wielded+by+private+individuals+and+businesses+over+government+appointments+and+policies.+The+backdrop+is+under-performing+state-owned+companies,+a+depreciating+currency,+falling+exports+and+rising+inflation.If+this+sounds+familiar,+look+at+Russia,+where+the+value+of+the+rouble+has+plummeted+due+to+lower+oil+exports+–+on+which+the+economy+is+unhealthily+dependent.+Oil+revenues+are+said+to+be+down+about+$30bn+in+five+years.+State-condoned+or+tolerated+corruption+is+a+big+issue+for+Moscow,+too.Cost+considerations+may+have+been+a+factor+in+the+recent,+surprise+decision+by+Russia’s+president,+Vladimir+Putin,+to+pull+most+of+his+forces+out+of+Syria.+Russia’s+economy+also+continues+to+suffer+as+a+result+of+western+sanctions+imposed+following+Putin’s+2014+annexation+of+Crimea.AdvertisementA+common+factor+for+all+Brics+countries+as+they+struggle+economically+is+institutional+weakness,+in+particular+a+lack+(or+in+some+cases,+a+total+absence)+of+democratic+accountability,+transparency+in+public+life,+and+independent+media+scrutiny+of+official+behaviour.+This+holds+especially+true+in+China,+where+a+fearful+ruling+Communist+party+has+cracked+down+on+public+debate,+labour+activists,+independent+lawyers,+and+civil+society+organisations+as+economic+woes+triggered+by+falling+exports+and+market+instability+have+mounted.Jatkuu...

JatkoAs+in+Brazil+and+Russia,+the+Chinese+authorities’+unspoken+worry+is+spreading+social+unrest.+This+risk+is+increasing+as+Beijing+seeks+to+restructure+unprofitable+state-owned+industries,+such+as+coal+and+steel,+with+the+potential+loss+of+millions+of+jobs.+Meanwhile+growth+targets+of+6.5-7%+in+the+2016-20+13th+five-year+plan+look+optimistic.Nor+does+the+Brics+group+lack+internal+challenges.+Efforts+at+closer+political+cooperation+have+foundered+over+differences+about+who+is+in+charge,+how+best+to+achieve+UN+security+council+reform+and,+for+example,+territorial+disputes+between+India+and+China.But+not+all+the+Brics+are+floundering.+As+the+analyst+George+Magnus+noted+in+Prospect+magazine,+India+currently+presents+a+model+of+relative+progress+which+the+others+might+study+to+their+advantage.“India+is+certainly+no+paragon+of+virtue+when+it+comes+to+corruption,+nor+is+its+economic+infrastructure+efficient,+but+it+is+endeavouring+to+accelerate+economic+reform,+and+competitiveness,”+Magnus+wrote.“India’s+economy+is+relatively+closed+and+so+it+is+not+as+vulnerable+to+the+slowdown+in+world+trade;+lower+oil+prices+have+unequivocally+benefited+the+country;+and+inflation,+interest+rates,+and+deficits+are+falling.+The+government+is+trying+to+open+up+to+more+infrastructure+spending,+foreign+investment+and+an+array+of+improvement+measures+that+should+help+the+economy+sustain+growth+rates+of+above+7%.”Given+their+sheer+size,+their+vast+resources,+and+their+youthful+populations,+it+would+plainly+be+foolish+to+write+off+the+Brics,+especially+as+a+declining+US+grows+more+introspective+and+Europe’s+confidence+falters.+But+economic+performance+cannot+be+the+only+measure+of+success+or+failure.To+take+their+rightful+place+in+the+21st+century,+the+Brics+countries+must+create+more+open,+accountable,+and+trustworthy+systems+of+governance.+This+is+a+challenge+of+leadership,+not+profit+and+loss.

Kiitos+aktiivinen+seuraaja+kopukka+että+olet+antanut+minulle+näin+paljon+tietoa.+Itse+luen+vähän+luetettavampaa+tietoa.+Jokaisesta+maasta+löytyy+rikollisuutta.+Yhdysvalloissa+rikollisuus+on+pahin+ongelma.+Lähes+viikoittain+ammutaan+ja+tapetaan.+Yhdysvalloissa+on+vakava+köyhyys.+25%+kansasta+on+äärimmäisen+köyhiä.+Jos+olet+käynyt+Yhdysvalloissa+niin+olet+huomannut+että+joka+paikassa+on+pummeja