Lama näkyy jo USA:ssa

By Katy O'Donnell

04/24/2025 01:00 PM EDT

The housing market had its worst March since the global financial crisis, weighed down by high borrowing costs and falling consumer confidence in the economy.

Home sales fell to their lowest annual level for March since 2009, dashing hopes for a rebound this year. Sales of previously owned homes plunged 5.9 percent from February to an annualized rate of 4 million units, according to data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors.

The slump is especially noteworthy because sales typically pick up in March as the spring buying season gets underway. It comes amid dizzying financial market volatility and falling consumer confidence sparked by concerns about the broader economy as President Donald Trump pursues an aggressive tariff agenda against all U.S. trading partners.

“I had anticipated that with more inventory we’d see more transactions, but the data make it clear that mortgage rates and affordability challenges are holding back buyers,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Home sales have been sluggish in recent years thanks to a combination of high prices — home values soared over the course of the pandemic — and elevated mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates rose to 7.8 percent in 2023 — after having fallen to as low as 2.7 percent in 2020 — posing a double threat to the market: They make monthly payments for potential buyers much more expensive, and they discourage people from selling their homes because they don’t want to give up their low rate.

While 2023 and 2024 were plagued by low inventory as a result of the lock-in effect, economists expected a rebound in sales starting this year.

“It looks like the mortgage rate is the magical influence for the housing market,” Yun said. “It’s definitely possible that the swings in the stock market in recent times may have also shocked some people into pulling back” from plans to purchase a home, he said.

Mortgage rates typically move with the 10-year Treasury yield, which has risen this month against wider volatility caused by the specter of a trade war. As of Thursday, the yield was 4.3 percent, and the interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.8 percent, according to Freddie Mac.

“Under the normal spread between the 10-year and mortgage rates, the mortgage rates today should be about 6.3 percent or even 6 percent, but instead we’re closer to a 7 percent rate,” Yun said.

The higher rate is “likely because the [Federal Reserve] is selling [mortgage-backed securities],” Yun said, and “it’s also possible that some of the foreign countries that are holding on to U.S. MBS are selling MBS back onto the market to hurt the mortgage rates, maybe purposely, as part of the trade war positioning.”

https://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/a/d07c47b7-a254-4a7e-afc9-612a791c5b08

Lama Suomeen tässä tilanteessa on katastrofaalinen. Kukaan ei voi väittää, etteikö tämän hallituksen veronalennukset, yritysten karmea määrä konkursseja ja työpaikkojen väheneminen olisi pahin mahdollinen isku. Lainaa joutuisi ottamaan entistä enemmän ja palveluja ajamaan alas.

Petteri Orpo taas EK:n Häkämiehen asialla. Nyt jkuitenkin jo yrityksistä kerrotaan, että tilausten määränt uhkaavasti vähentyneet, joka aiheuttaa jo huolestumista