Tuloksia tornadotutkimuksesta

tuossa kirjoitti:

Tuossa on muutama extracti mitä vaikkapa joku asiasta kiinnostunut voipi tiedustella tai ostaa
ja jos sivun osoitteen saa laittaa niin laitetaan
(www.jannehuttunen.com)





Below are some extracts from result leaflet
a buyer will get instantly with him or her, alongside the electronic original files
plus the contracted silence protecting the competitive edge
for an agreed period,
on the demo/contracting day with customer/investor

Volatility of Asynchronity
(extracts of presentation)

Result leaflet
(extracts)
Research Approach
Sample Size
Documentation Protocol
Main Results
Background variables
Subgroups; Path Length
Applications
Micosoft Excel Files Reading Guide
Macintosh Files Reading Guide


---------------
Volatility of Asynchronity
(extracts of presentation)
Volatility of Asynchronic time presented

(transparency of presentation materiel meant for example US buyer candidates ..)


The asynchronic time is presented in this transparency by its volatility
( find from excel files... ”Nonlinear time”)

Here the volatile gauges are presented.

In this picture they are measured in certain point in the Maryland, US at the certain time of the year.

The vertical axis depicts how many the gauges forwards. The both are measured every two hour period started with 00:50am, then 2:50 am ...(like here in x-axis)

Like we can found both progress ”wildly” and of the two ###### jumps even at times proceeding at the speed of over ##### per /###### section while at other times it can progress even six times slower.


Simply looking this transparency we see why the asynchronity offers more tools as offering a framework to study the variety and multitude of a time which would extremely difficult to see by using only our clocks, the UTC.

The UTC is like flying a plane with a one gauge on while asynchronic gauges (asynchronic from UTC-perspective) offers a gauges with the a variety and sharpness of a jet plane.

--------
Result leaflet
(extracts)
Research Approach
Sample Size
Documentation Protocol
Main Results
Background variables
Subgroups; Path Length
Applications
Micosoft Excel Files Reading Guide
Macintosh Files Reading Guide

--------


RESEARCH APPROACH

Goal of the Tornado study

The Goal of the tornado study was to seek either supportive or non-supportive evidence for a validation of The Theory of a Sequences.

The technical and traditional statistical zero level hypothesis assumes there is no dependency between phenomenon and the studied dilemma, in this case the asynchronic framework, the theory of a sequences.

The zero hypothesis broke clearly.

The results of a Tornado study refers it is more likely for a Theory of a Sequences to be right than being wrong by the selected macro level framework according tornadoes.

Similarly in the situation lacking any counter-arguments
and with other preliminary studies it is more logical and more likely for a Theory of a Sequences to be right than being wrong by the selected macro level framework according every phenomenon in life.







What does the results means to a common man?

The tornado study gave positive results suggesting the existence of measurable and meaningful asynchronic time cycles.

The time cycles can be used for practical purposes.

Their evidence while leaning to history of time series means the alarms systems are already tested assuming the time series does
not suddenly change which would be less likely occasion.


VALIDITY OF THE STUDY

Q: Do we need now tens of more studies?

A: No.
It would be simply
stupid.

While this study is a pilot study and one study, it does not change anything in our logic. The behaviour of the tornadoes in their population is already proven by this study.

Studying more would mean the same like a headquarter would have received of full envelope of aerial photographs and they would order ten pilot to make the same work again.
Q: Are You sure?

A: Sure I am sure. When one study is statistically correct
It is true and cannot be invalidated by further studies.
It is same the studies would be zillions the one study with its empiric does not swing.

This I mean also it is uneconomical cliché to claim for further. The only reason to say so in public is because of the rivalry between researchers.

Actually to anyone validate this You can watch few sci-fi movies spending few hours with movies makes you more concentrated thinker than one who spends years in universities, while after a while You have two many perspectives to think clear. The best logical principles comes from movies and from history of logic. If some logical principle is mentioned after a 700 years or so. I think the validity is pretty high.



*
The Occams Razor from 13th century gives a basic principle to compare two alternatives.

It says the option out of two which presents more simple logic is the one which is more likely to be true. Hardly You can introduce more practical and useful guidelines for a real world.

When we open up new doors we have always, or we can diminish and crystallize the options to two. That should be the way how resources will be allocated and lives to be lived.

simply meaning the door is open now, and who goes there is light-years ahead of others who scratch their balls and head and go to university lectures to learn too many options.

You can decide if these results and the experiences with other pre-studies are revolutionary or if not.

To those who are excited I like to say it is more likely and I know myself already the further studies will do similarly. You will get support for this theory.


------

DUE LIMITATIONS OF A SAMPLE SIZE

** The limitations of a sample size in this study, made the objective construct
the basis for general tornado theory and not only to build an alarm system but prove the theory itself which is larger issue. To get detailed with tornadoes themselves more sample size and more background variables to divide the database is needed to create a comprehensive picture of tornado behaviour according the variables which exists and are collected but their present encoding variated by State.




What could scramble this thought?

Such a things would be e.g. that some asshole claim I can not be given a prize because I curse too much or I am too naive represent me in medias.

Reliability of the study material was fed in reliable way, meaning the numerical values are correct.

Test methods are checked. They are sufficient.

Later in these pages even it would take years the observations of the database is listed so that anyone can and has right to check the information by him or herself.



--------

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS

Of the 769 cases 481 cases happened in all individual days. Correspondingly 288 tornadoes occurred in days there was at least another tornado outbreak during the same calendar day.

While study approach was quite simple because of the limitation of the sample size the ”styngdpunkt” (the emphasis) was to secure the reliability with longer measures like within limits of 24 hours first.

The research perspective was as follows:

”Are there recognisable similarities between (asynchronic) time cycles during tornado touchdown?”

I.e. are tornadoes recognisable according The Theory of Sequences.

To guarantee unbiased results all of the data which had overlap for a same calendar day was excluded. Only one observation (randomly selected) was accepted of each calendar day to enter to the analysed group.

The limitation of the somewhat small
sample size made evident subgroups was limited, value of study.





------
Appendix 1.Documentation Protocol1. Terms and documentationIn this DEMO-1 level presentation the used documentation and terms are explained here.In the pages of 1-5 ################The pages gives additionally alphabetical order of al given terms in this DEMO-presentationand used study1.1 DOCUMENTAITON OF THE FRAMEWORK OF THE STUDYIn this study of The Theory of Sequneces, used macrolevel empiric framework1 used the orbit times of the massesof extraterrestial. These orbiting times can be used as gauges2 for asynchronic reference as well transferred to UTC, while proving and measuring the existence of a hypothetical asynchronic timecycles3 VARIABLES PRESENTED1. THE AMOUNT OF VARIABLESThere were used 1115 variables alltogether in in this study , which tornadoes could be analysed against.1115 of variables are ########## ##########, gauges measuring time according TONE. Later in this report they are named only ÒgaugesÓ.12 variables measured the general tornado characteristics (background variables) while 5 variables measured time by the earth time (UTC).Further 1115 Asynchronic Gauges can be divided to ############## ########### ############ ########### ##########. Making the ÒNetÓ of catching tornado behaviour even in this preliminary size of survey quite large based.DOCUMENTATION PROTOCOL OF GAUGESThe masses original orbiting times unsequantilized are presented in In the table 1 of this DEMO-text are listed in the order of their equivalent orbiting times from fastest to slowest. On the column in right the category of each gauge is listed according the type of the gauge (according its physical properties).TABLE 1 #####################################################(excluded from demo 0) ####################............The below tables; 2-9 presents the orbiting cycle duration and cycle characteristics. Earth time (UTC) is marked approximately equal. Time is introduced moving from natural times cycles from table 2 to 8 up to reach the seconds level correspondingly measured by (UTC).The tables 2 and 3 presents NT cycle duration of selected gauges in approximate days and years of earth time (UTC)3. Table 4 presents approximate cycle durations by hours. Table 5 presents approximate cycle durations by hours per selected sections in this study. Table 6 presents approximate cycle durations by selected section by minutes of earth time (UTC). Table 7 presents approximate cycle durations by selected section by seconds of earth time (UTC)Table 8 presents approximate cycle durations by selected section by seconds of earth time (UTC).Table 9 presents the nature of the selected gauges regarding cycle volatility depictingthe principles of asynchronity in a practical level. With selected framework the table classifies the characteristics of asynchronity involving both linear and nonlinear gauges as well volatile and stable gauges. TABLE 2         Cycle duration by                         earth time            Cycle       Cycle                   Aprox. days Aprox. yrs                   Earth Time      Earth Time1-GAUGE #####    ###### #### ## ####2-GAUGE ###### ##### ##########################################################(excluded from demo 0) ####################............TABLE 3         Cycle duration Aprox. by days            (with accuracy)            Cycle          Cycle             Aprox. days    Aprox.days2            Earth Time         Earth Time1-GAUGE #####    ###### #### ## ####2-GAUGE ###### ##### ##########################################################(excluded from demo 0) ####################............TABLE 4         Cycle duration Aprox. by hours                           Cycle Aprox.    Cycle Aprox.            hours          hours2            Earth Time       Earth Time1-GAUGE #####    ###### #### ## ####2-GAUGE ###### ##### ##########################################################(excluded from demo 0) ####################............TABLE 5    Cycle duration Aprox.by section            Section          Section             Aprox. hours      Aprox. h2               Earth Time         Earth Time1-GAUGE #####    ###### #### ## ####2-GAUGE ###### ##### ##########################################################(excluded from demo 0) ####################............TABLE 6    Theoretical Cycle duration Aprox. by        section equalling     ####### of a cycle            Section          Section             Aprox. minutes                     Earth Time         1-GAUGE #####    ###### #### ## ####2-GAUGE ###### ##### ##########################################################(excluded from demo 0) ####################............TABLE 7    Theoretical Cycle duration Aprox. by        By section equalling ################### of a cycle)            Section                      Aprox. seconds                     Earth Time         1-GAUGE #####    ###### #### ## ####2-GAUGE ###### ##### ##########################################################(excluded from demo 0) ####################............TABLE 8    Theoretical Cycle duration Aprox. by       section equalling        ############### ################## of a               cycle)            Section                      Aprox. seconds                     Earth Time         1-GAUGE #####    ###### #### ## ####2-GAUGE ###### ##### ##########################################################(excluded from demo 0) ####################............             TABLE 8         Cycle volatility                        Asynchronity   Cycle/Orbit.                            Aprox.                        Earth Time1-GAUGE    very volatile #### #### #### ### #####-GAUGE   volatile linear ##### #########-GAUGE      linear stable####-GAUGE   nonlinear         1-GAUGE #####    ###### #### ## ####2-GAUGE ###### ##### ##########################################################(excluded from demo 0) ####################............1.2 The procedure of Reporting ResultsBelow are example how in this demonstration individual Results are reported:Example 1.####-GAUGE was observed 2,16 times above average in the section ## and 3,04 times above average in the section ##.Reading guide for independent use of the results: the obervation are; referring the selected framework measuring NT in ## pieces #############..Example 2.As a reverse-finding ###-GAUGE was not found at all from section ## Reading guide for independent use of the results: because of the yet inadequent english reverse-finding refers the lack of obserevations in referred section.2. Terms explained##############(5 pages of terms explained edited out from demo 0) ######################################
--------
CH 1. MAIN RESULTS

1. MULTIPLIERS PRESENTED

The objective of this study was to prove if Sequential Theory is more likely to be true or false according selected macro level framework. In this case extraterrestial

To measure the data sample in a simple form; a suitable reference unit was developed. In this study it is called a multiplier.

The multipliers in this study indicates how much each result deviates from the normal frequency. In this case normal frequency meaning the average amount of tornadoes occurred is marked by the value 1.00.

The numerical values of a multipliers varies
in this study from 0.00-0.69 and 1.31-2.923 The selected multipliers deviates therefore at minimum /- 0.31 from the average value (1.00). This same strength of a multiplier mans statistically meaningful deviation in the list below2. Hence there exist never values between 0.70 to 1.30.

Multiplier values below 1 pinpoint the time period when tornado risk is decreased.
These sequences are called in this study; safer cycle2.

Values above 1 depicted the time period of a heightened risk of a tornado. This is called in this study; risk cycle3


REFERENCES

1=

2= data users: refer also Microsoft Excel File ”Multipliers”

-------

In this study there are altogether 762 multipliers enlisted. Of those 182 are results based on ########## gauges ( marked in the list below with note ###########).578 multipliers are results from ################ gauges (marked in the list below with note of ################).



2.   Multipliers analysed

Here the main results of this study is presented.


The amount of the multipliers indicates that there are deviances between different sections in context to tornado occurrence. Multipliers here supports the existence of asynchronic time cycles further supporting the Theory of a Sequences.

This magnitude of findings suggest the Theory of a Sequences being correct is more likely than being false.


From the point of view of tornado detection multipliers gives a basic knowledge to build a tornado theory and makes possible to build an alarm system2. .


1.2. Multipliers by tornado type

As explained in the chapter introducing the background variables; the whole database was handled in three control groups:DATA SAMPLE A, B and C. These control groups differ regarding if they consist killer-tornadoes and sample size4.

762 multiplier were found between these control groups followingly:

            amount of
            multipliers

DATA SAMPLE A      207

DATA SAMPLE B      227

DATA SAMPLE C       328

            


4 refer. Background Variables, p. ##.

In the table below the multipliers are listed
according control groups and separating the information if they involved with risk cycle2 or safer cycle3.


Table 1.3b ”Tornado risk in control              groups”

         increase    decrease
         tornado     tornado
          risk       risk


DATA SAMPLE A      121      86

DATA SAMPLE B      122      105

DATA SAMPLE C       174      154

      





1.3. Multipliers by sections

Sections5 in this study equals to timeperiod6 which was usually ################ ######### ## ######.

The results below represent the deviances between sections when all multipliers are collected to the section levels.


5= ref. ”Sketching the tornado alarm system” p. __?
6= ref.”Documentation Protocol”

1.3a Tornado sensitivity by sections

In the table below all multipliers are listed according sections and ranked in order by frequencies. Numbers in the table equals with real frequencies.

Table 1.3a ”Overall tornado sensitivity by        sections”

Section      Amount of
         multipliers   

Section-### ##### ############# ###### ############## edited out from demo 0 ############



1.3b Tornado risk by sections

In the table below the multipliers
are presented in sections according if they produce a safer or riskier
time periods.

Columns which have deviances suggesting safer cycle is coloured blue when columns suggesting risk cycles are coloured red. The last numeral column on the right indicates with prefix the volume when there are more observations suggesting risk cycle and with - prefix the volume when there are more observations suggesting safe cycle during the time period. The list are ranked in order by the volumes of riskiest to safest sections. Numbers in the table equals with real frequencies.


Table 1.3b ”Overall tornado risk by                    sections”

         increase    decrease
         tornado     tornado
          risk       risk


Section-### ##### ############# ###### ############## edited out from demo 0 ############


Of Volumes; there are 345 multipliers which suggest the ”safer cycle” and 417 multipliers which suggest the ”risk cycle”.

Sections like ##### #### #### #### #### #### #### ### ## # seem to possess somewhat overall trend to be involved with more often increasing the tornado risk. Sections like ####### ###### ##### ####### ## #### seem to more often decrease the tornado risk.


1.4. ”Multipliers” Microsoft Excel           print/file explained


”The single multipliers which the alarm systems is based on are not detailed in this presentation. They are presented in the p___ Chapter 5. ”Building the tornado alarm system”.




The Multipliers are gathered in the list and is found from p__from appendix __
There is also reading guide for print file and to version of data file of Microsoft Excel ####### ######### with terms and abbreviations explained.



1.5 Conclusions


The objective of the study was to prove if there is variances or not.
The variances were found. This is clear even without statistical tests. A common man can understood
by the amount of multipliers found with meaningful variances of 762 pieces there are expected enormous more amounts of sequences found when sampling size is increased. even with a sampling size like this the tornado alarm system can be built with enormous accuracy.

No further analyses to bust tornadoes is therefore needed, is the simple message for a financial decision maker.

The tornado alarm system must be used in practise on spring 2006.

This decision must understand to be a necessity.

Mr. Janne Huttunen
November 2004
Published in internet on 31st October 2005
-----------


Chapter 5. Database Introduced




A. Sample size

The sample size in this study was altogether 769 tornadoes.

Of these 288 observations was excluded from database during the most of the analyses. This was to fulfil the specific research criterias2 of this study.

The whole size of the sample was used when specific research criteria’s was not necessary to fullfill3 making 481 tornadoes the sample size for most of the studies.



B. Forming the control groups

The database was organised to three control groups. The three group is named in this study DATA SAMPLE A, DATA SAMPLE B and DATA SAMPLE C. They consist observations presented in the table below.

TABLE 5.1 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS
       IN CONTROL GROUPS

            number of                      observations

DATA SAMPLE A      481

DATA SAMPLE B      326

DATA SAMPLE C      155


DATA SAMPLE A consist all the tornadoes left after excluding observations which happened on a same calendar day4 and year (e.g. multiple outbreaks).


4= PLEASE REFER: Research Approach to get more detailed

DATA SAMPLE B

Consists tornadoes which did not involve the loss of human lives.


DATA SAMPLE C

Consists tornadoes which did occur with casualties (deaths). Data sample C equals with so called Killer-Tornadoes.


C. Methods of manipulating
control groups

The sample size in this study set limitations of analysing data. Analysing in subgroups was limited. Unless specially announced, the frequencies of each variable is divided and analysed ############# ########### ######### ### ###### ########### #####. Splitting this information further by more profiling variables e.g. the fortitude of tornado, the cost effects etc. was not carried through in this study due to the limits of the resources.




VARIABLES INTRODUCED

Below research variables are introduced to those who are interested of the organisation of
the database. The variables used are listed in equivalent order below
and the equivalent content in the database is shortly depicted by an example. Also the used numeral or categorical range of the each variable is mentioned.


State

MD


County/District

Carroll County


Town, Village/Area

Gamber

Storm type

Tornado (Killer-Tornado)

Path Wide (yards)

350   (0-1000)

Path Length (miles/1000)1

2250   (0-135000)

Intensity by Fujita Scale

F3   (F0-F5)

Death Casualties

0

Injured

3

$ Primary material losses

$ 5.000.000


Material losses short. depiction

Ò66 homes were damaged of which 12 were destroyed (Extract reference in a one sentence)

Multiple Outbreaks or Tornadoes on same Calendar Day?

0   (0=no, 2-20 there is equivalent
   amount of tornadoes on same calendar    day)


Day of the Week

Wednesday   (Sunday-Saturday)

Hour

1435      (0000-2400)

Day

19   (1-31)

Month

7   (1-12)

Year

1996

------------
FRAMEWORK VARIABLES1

Part I   

(edited out from demo 0)

Part II   

(edited out from demo 0)

1= Please refer ÒTERMS EXPLAINEDÓ
















3. Background variables          
reviewed


TORNADOES IN TIME


The oldest observation in this study is from 1807, the newest from 2003.

78% of the observations are post 1950`s. 17% is from 1900 to 1950. 5% of the data is collected from 19th century.


MONTH

Nearly half of the tornadoes in this study occurred in typical rush time of Spring: March, April and May.
In the table below the tornado observation is listed through out the year


TABLE 3.1 TORNADO FREQUENCIES BY MONTH


JANUARY   35      5%

FEBRUARY   44      6%

MARCH      103      13%

APRIL      119      15%

MAY         147      19%

JUNE      66      9%

JULY      57      7%

AUGUST   37      5%

SEPTEMBER   37      5%

OCTOBER   36      5%

NOVEMBER   66      9%

DECEMBER   22      3%




TIME OF THE DAY

The Onrush hours for tornadoes exist according to this study materiel also within hours. "Rush hours" of tornado population according this sample size seems to be the two hours period6 of 1600 to 1800. This period took nearly 22% share of all tornadoes. 2,60 time above the average.

6=* Please refer Ò#########Ó

551 observation out of total 739 measured with precise clock time
occurred during the hours of 1200-2200.

That is 75% of tornado occurring during the 10 hours. This period would seem to have some meaning according this study.Probablity for these hours (speaking of UTC) tornado occurrence is 1,8 times higher than would be the average.

While I am not a tornado specialist nor I am going to spend rest of my life within the narrow research area this was interesting observation for me as well.

Correspondingly during the early hours to morning (from midnight to 9 am.) tornadoes took the share of only 14,6% which were 0,39 times less than would be the normal average.

Below the frequencies and percentages is reported by hour.

TABLE 3.3. TORNADO FREQUENCY BY HOUR


   time      Count Percent
1   0   100   12   1,6%
2   100   200   19   2,6%
3   200   300   18   2,4%
4   300   400   15   2,0%
5   400   500   9   1,2%
6   500   600   13   1,8%
7   600   700   10   1,3%
8   700   800   6   0,8%
9   800   900   7   0,9%
10   900   1000   11   1,5%
11   1000   1100   6   0,8%
12   1100   1200   24   3,2%
13   1200   1300   39   5,3%
14   1300   1400   34   4,6%
15   1400   1500   45   6,1%
16   1500   1600   70   9,5%
17   1600   1700   78   10,5%
18   1700   1800   82   11,1%
19   1800   1900   60   8,1%
20   1900   2000   63   8,5%
21   2000   2100   49   6,6%
22   2100   2200   31   4,2%
23   2200   2300   17   2,3%
24   2300   2400   21   2,8%



FUJITA-SCALE

The coded data of Fujita scale was available for 552 tornadoes. In below table the intensity of tornadoes in this study is listed.

TABLE 3.4. TORNADO INTENSITY BY              FUJITA-SCALE

      count:   percentage:

   F0   82      14,85%
   F1   136      24,64%
   F2   219      39,67%
   F3   75      13,59%
   F4   34      6,16%
   F5   6      1,08%



KILLER-TORNADOES

34% of tornadoes in this study was killer tornadoes. Killer tornadoes mean the sadly the loss of a human life.
Many short depictions of a such a loss of life was very stressful experience to assimilate with. Some depictions seemed the victim did not had no options to survive whatever he or she seemingly had tried to do at best belief and attempt. This caused a lot of personal anxiety and was one of the motives to hit back to tornadoes in willing to see hope.

This was the DATA SAMPLE C. In the below is table which details the Killer-tornadoes by giving information of lives lost.


TABLE 3.5. KILLERTORNADOES BY LOSS             OF LIFE



casualties         percentage:

1 person loss      46%
2 persons loss      16%
3 persons loss      9%
4-10    person loss   12%
> 10    person loss   17%


Note* Maximum amount of loss of life as well as injuries with single tornado day outburst of tornado was 695 person (with injured 2027).



REFERENCES:

1
2
3


4. OBSERVATIONS

4.1 States in this study

Table below presents all the states in alphabetical order
and the frequency of tornadoes which
were included in this study.


TABLE 4.1 STATES IN THIS STUDY2
         observations

ALABAMA    (AL)    301

ARKANSAS     (AR)   14

ARIZONA     (AZ)   1

FLORIDA    (FL)   7

GEORGIA    (GA)   10

ILLINOIS    (IL)   9

INDIANA    (IN)    2

KANSAS   (KS)    5

KENTUCKY    (KY)   7

LOUSIANA   (LA)   4

MARYLAND   (MD)   121

MICHIGAN?   (MI)   2

MINNESOTA    (MN)   4

MISSOURI????   (MO)   12

MISSISSIPPI??   (MS)   9

NORTH CAROLINA   (NC)   3

NORTH DAKOTA   (ND)   1

NEBRASKA   (NE)   1

NEW JERSEY   (NJ)   1

NEW MEXICO   (NM)   1

OHIO   (OH)   6

OKLAHOMA   (OK)   77

PENNSYLVANIA   (PA)   2

SOUTH CAROLINA?   (SC)   4

SOUTH DAKOTA?   (SD)   3

TENNESSEE   (TN)   17

TEXAS   (TX)   16

UTAH   (UT)   2

VIRGINIA   (VA)   81

WEST-VIRGINIA       1

??WISCONSIN   (WI)   2





5. LIMITATIONS OF BACKGROUND
INFORMATION

While some states like Maryland (near the US Government) listed tornadoes extensively with a lot of sensible information this was not the usual case with other states acquiring the information from internet. Accordingly background variables could be used occasionally, not in organised structures.

Regrettably rare were the cases when the instant damages could have been estimated in dollars, which would have been one of the most objective variables for a measurement.

While not knowing if insurance companies have need to draw the cites appraisals to a one file to annually report to research institute. Undeniably also the estimated immediate materiel costs would be an interest for a researcher. Another cost calculations would be from humane costs evaluated in economic criterias with immediate and costs occurred the following years or the whole life of injured which means immense cost for individual insurance and social support needed.





--------


(nice to know information...)
Chapter Extra*
TORNADO DAMAGE PATHS REVIEWED

The states of Alabama, Maryland and Virginia published the tornado damage path information on internet. This information is reviewed shortly below.


A. Length of the Damage Path

In the states of Alabama, Maryland and Virginia the length of the tornado damage path was recorded1 and published on internet. The analyse of path length therefore included observations from those three States2. Altogether there was 424 observations available with the information of the length of the damage path. 272 of these were accepted by the criteria3 and analysed.


A2. Damage Path Length Reviewed

In this study length of the damage paths varied from 0.015 miles
to 135 miles long.

5% of the tornadoes in this study had a damage path less than 0,2 miles. 25% of the tornadoes in this study had a damage path less than a mile. 75% of the cases had damage paths over a mile length.


TABLE 1.## DISTRIBUTION OF THE LENGTH OF THE DAMAGE PATHS

damage path    in this study

< 0,2 miles   5%

0,2 -1 miles   20%

1-5 miles      33%

5-10 miles      15%

10-20 miles   15%

20-50 miles   9%

50-100 miles   2%

> 100 miles   1%


A2B. Path length,
preliminary review in           sections

The path length was analysed by ##-section procedure4. Below the some deviations are reported showing potentilaity to divide databases later in subgroubs. Statistical validation is not made to this preliminary overview.


4=refer Protocol of Documentation


To guarantee sufficient amount of observations the length of the damage path was split on three different groups:


a) path length less than a mile

25% of the observations

b) path length 1-5 miles      

33% of the observations

c) path length 5-20 miles   

    30% of the observations

The results are documented according to protocol of this study2

2= Please refer Protocol of the study




Da) damage path less than a mile
Section-### ##### ############# ###### ############## edited out from demo 0 ############
Section-### ##### ############# ###### ############## edited out from demo 0 ############
Section-### ##### ############# ###### ############## edited out from demo 0 ############
Section-### ##### ############# ###### ############## edited out from demo 0 ############

Da1) ###-GAUGE was observed 2,13 times above average in the ## section

Da2) ##-GAUGE was observed 2,26 times above average in a section ## 1,79 times above average in section ##.

Da3) ####-GAUGE was observed 2,18 times above average in section #

Da4) ##-GAUGE was not found at all from section ##.

Da5) ###-GAUGE was observed 0,42 times below the average from section #.

Da6) ######### ############ ################......


Db) damage path 1-5 miles   

Db1) ####-GAUGE was observed 1,74 times above average from section #
Db2) ##-GAUGE was observed 0,42 times below the average from section #

Db3) ##-GAUGE was observed 1,77 times above average in section #

Db4) ############## ################.....


Dc) damage path 5-20 miles   

Dc1) ###-GAUGE was observed 1,87 times above average in the # section.

Dc2) ###-GAUGE was observed 2,36 times above average in the ## section.

Dc3) ########### ##### # ########.....


---



1=To the users of Macintosh Database by computers please refer Appendix “Data Base coding”

2=Please refer “Background variables”; Table __

3= please see appendix

4=refer the chapter “Research Approach”









B. Width of the Damage Path

In the States of the Maryland and Virginia the information regarding tornado«s damage path«s width was available. Damage path’s width could be fed into a database in this study 171 times. Therefore it is not presented in subgroups3.


CB. Damage Path Width reviewed

To give a perspective of common tornadoes characteristics to a common man for a starters below the distribution of the path width is presented.

TABLE 1.#2 DISTRIBUTION OF THE WIDTH OF THE DAMAGE PATHS

Path Width      share
(yards)

0-50         30%

50-100      27%

100-200      23%

200-300      12%

300-1000       8%




C. Summary

The clear message of these findings are there exist variances between sequences i.e. time.

Time is a valid and meaningful tool to predict and decrease the tornado havoc and cost.

Time is more likely a valid criteria to predict, explain and understand all phenomenon’s in the Earth sphere. The sentence bases on other researches together this one the researcher has a vast objective experience.

Mr. Janne Huttunen
Januari 2005

--------

APPLICATIONS

There is no timeless environment in Earth. The potential power and applications for ”The Theory of Sequences” or if You like better e.g. ”Time Theory” is unlimited. No one needs a help for the imagination
and brainstorming which You can study when You can study all and everything.

At least if it is true with magnitudes I believe I think we have another reason to evolve with life which probably eternally challenges us to feel attracted by life.

We may look forward sooner the space which seems to be last unconquered ”ocean” waiting to be colonialized? Where are the space conquistadors? If someone will give suddenly the answer for the question tomorrow. I guess I should not be too surprised. I am just amazed to birth to a time where I could learn so much.



In the below there is few suggestions
for Time Theory studies for governments to use for peaceful actions.

NON-ORGANIC NATURE

Estimating the crisis and rest periods
of e.g.

a) natural disasters
b) weather

ORGANIC NATURE

Estimating the crisis and rest periods
of e.g.

ECONOMY & POLITICS

plan with long term vision
with better understanding of the future trends

estimating the crisis potentiality
well in advance giving more time to adjust them and attempting to manipulate and correct

planning the ”B-plans” for economy and politics to stabilise the expected declines and recessions. Attempt to manipulate to economical megacycles by seeking stable growth.



HUMANS
   HEALTH CARE

   a) studying illnesses and              successful medication

   TRAFFIC
   heightened times for traffic
   accidents, flying accidents etc.

   OCCUPATION

b) Arbeit macht frei: Discovering unique talents; people able to perform as an artists, athletes, security or putting them into concentration camps if such a belief exist people can not do nor learn.



NATIONAL SECURITY

Time might be also a potential weapon. It is not direct weapon
but it could grow to an intelligence tool as much everything can be sequantialized and researched. Visionising the possibilities could be
for instance..

By researching historical crisis and conflicts; for example surprise attacks one might theoretically* find an ”surprise attack cycles/formula” which practically gives sufficient reason to allocate economically rational budgets to experiment and starting to observe the formula with a lot of research materiel for times of the crisis.

Military history is sharply documented when it comes to timing. There exist usually hours and minutes like with tornadoes. The coordinates can be at least estimated within sufficient limits to have meaningful results.

In principle one could decide he or she wants to see if there is a pattern with a time involved e.g. invasions.
Where to start? Feeding into statistical programs could be start for such as Dieppe, Normandy, Anzio,...however the limitations of observations would be soon become of problem, how to form control groups such that there is a basic essence which has no variance within the group? How to decide what invasions would be included? Not all are alike. Conceptualising and sharpening the research problem limits a lot of the potential research to be carried in practise. Presently blossoming societies and lives of individuals this gives safety in all cases in addition to worldwide publicity.

Natural inertia giving safety and protection is probably such that all nations satisfy to observe the developments and news of this branch of an science rather than adapt ”early-innovator status”.

To get back to example which might threaten the status quo between the nations if it would be quickly adaptable.
However if You see the ”chaos” exist even e.g. between the such invasions like Dieppe (unsuccessful), Normandy(successful) and Anzio(different strategy, different materiel and logistics used etc...endless lists of variances..)

Also only sharpening the research problems between ”chaos” would lead many conceptual misunderstandings
(refer.. Anzio between Normandy e.g.) while seeing the scenarios in practise You hardly can find equal phenomenon’s. Only You could use linguistics to define or form the visual lexicon I have talked so eagerly. You would go through the scenarios with a kind of an photographic memory and instead of up to the bottom You would go from bottom to the up and would dissect first everything to particles and ”atoms”. Such as ”Hey there is a similar red cross symbol on that Jeep and the hey the model is the same..lets put that in our visual lexicon and now we start”.

After You would go the red cross and Jeep M whatever
and would refer and link these times and coordinates with a similar enough expression (Ex) You would have loose
but practically enough basis to keep these parts of the puzzle a directly contextual (DC). Still You would puzzle with the question of what it comes to location.

While now You have a piece of an puzzle You live Your life and one day You see the Red Cross with the same Jeep model and it is parked in middle of the Army museum You check your clocks and coordinates of 3D , You use central epicentre (Cep) method where you interpolate the centre of the mass of the Jeep to some point and report the occurrence to the notepad which You always carry with.
You have made an third observation for Your red cross Jeep study.

While tornado is probably always about somewhat same and mechanistic phenomenon, (although they may be individuals:) You face different dilemma with Jeep with a red cross banner. Why it has different functions? Why it is not always in Anzio or in Normandy?
However this logic gives You a key to next level.

You start to form groups now with a red cross jeep with a model M whatever it was and use categorisation and see if there is red Cross Jeeps in a place of Your interest
if it is invasion You limit the sample size of Red Cross Jeeps to be in research which only locates on Anzio, or what only locates within the time the invasions exist.

By this You «get back to the world of linguistic problems. You must conceptualise and use perhaps many sheets of paper to define verbally what invasion means to You and what it does not mean. After a such an procedure You have your won invasion lexicon which should be as practical enough you can sink into a world of invasions and without a second thought clearly find your observations.

However what You got now might still be a dead end street while lacking observations. Invasions are probably as rare as big tsunamis. You could have a sales leads as many and promising but You would die as a person who would always keep guessing, right?

If You would like to study a subject which would have as much observations as possible You might choose for example to infantry attack times from world wars.
There was immense amount of infantry attack while no one had planned the wars are wanted them. Not even Hitler people just somehow started to declare war against each others and followingly there results many attempts to attack and as poorly planned it created a circle where idiots were attacking and counter-attacking without any plan or reason to succeed. That is true until Americans came, suddenly the things changed some party involved in to a game which had had valour and bitter fighting but that was overthrown and the Americans used planning and materiel which lead to somewhat quick victory. They did not appear to give a fair fight, they simply came to win.

Whatever before the period of 1916 or 1944 You would have certainly a hundreds of an observations to be fed into statistics. However formulating the hypothesis
would be interesting.

What would You be studying?

An infantry attack?

Ok. Let us accept that Your
hypothesis or a question You want to resolve.

You may formulate it to a scientific bureaucracy something like: ”When does the infantry attack occur according to cyclical perspective of a life.”

As You are a statistics You start from zero. Your zero hypothesis is the chaos exist.

If You brake it You created an order if You keep the zero in the air You can have the yesterday and continue Your sleeps.

However. If You think further there is some interesting points of view.

The self-evident is the amount of an infantry attacks are not equally distributed phenomenon practically from Your life«s perspective. You live about perhaps lucky 100 years. How long life span infantry attacks have? Already a longer, don«t You think? The distribution of infantry attacks would go provenly too far from Your perspective even their perspective they would be equally distributed. (equally distributed in here refers they happen within in timespan we should once again help ourselves to understand this time ”asynchronic” would be helped by a term for example the ” megacycles”. If You would be God of an Infantry Attacks from Your perspective You would see Your life as stable as table surface while your cyclical sensing of the world would have longer spans or delays from our perspective.

To quickly say something, while the evolution will happen
so does it match with the evolution of the masses in heavens. From the point of view of infantry attacks they exist in a future, right?
However if You could go to future and see if your study did had validity are You sure You would recognise the ”infantry attack” elevated or degradated by evolution?

What if You would watching sport from a kind of an hologram-telly and your history teacher form 21st century
mumbles about the infantry attack and had laid a calendar up to the 2205 and You just missed the infantry attack while watching sport?

An observer might ask what is ”infantry attack” really?

As a dum you must be to enter to the world of a science. You experiment, while You have no better thing to do. If You go to stone ages. Do You recognise it?

Another thing is Do you think if you take 1000 infantry attack of world war I which You could believe easily they are about the same idiotic running rival against the machine gunfire
..what if You would later notice there are differences between observations?

Still another is the concept I introduced.. the ExO (Expressional options)

What if the answers are yet so far away in distant future we accept the existence of ExO as being the part of a reasonable science.
I.e. the energy and time which should show a kind of a mass, with all of its recognisable dimension with colours to express neatly in a expected location ;.....what if You expect an asynchronic clock in Your hand at year 2134 at time 21:34 pm the infantry attack is likely to happen
in Texas south border at coordinates of....bla blaa.

Then You live the year 2133. You need desperately money so You will go and wake up the president as You have an urgent message. What if You alarm about hundreds of thousands cost battalions to be raised an level of alarm and for just in case to go patrol the people who live on the ancient Mexican soil will not strike over borders.

What if all goes well from Your perspective. You have your battalion and you dug into positions and alarm about thousands of a jet planes to give cover. At the sharp minute and seconds nothing will happen instead when the moment pass somebody opens a television and says ”Hey, guys look here comes the El Alamo, would You like to see it”. Well that is a certainly an infantry attack.
How could You have excepted the evolution would turn it infantry attack to happen in a telly? The answer is You could but You missed the evolution parameters while expected the time series will not bend with a time progressed.

Lets wind back our videotapes and we try another option.
You are with Your battalions on earlier Mexican borders.
You wait with Your asynchronic watches the time gets by nothing happens. A somebody gets bored and starts
to fry pop corns. They pop and crackle and ”shoot” while getting ready. But did anyone noticed?
Perhaps if You have a linguistic or visual dreamer among Your troops he might write it down or remember later when repeated in associative situations which DC enough (directly contextualises).

What if You had such a vast hypothesis the infantry attack offers a variation which.. are subject to a linguistic misunderstandings while You based your hypothesis.
What if actually what You did sequentialize was not infantry attacks put pops and crackle sound?
Meaning there must be frustrating work to do who study the subject to find the real clues.

One way to do it is not to go to university but dig the dirt of video archives and If You are a dum enough You say Yourself must go back to the Anthony Hopkins in his cell to refer Marcus Aurelius because any other option would be a waste of a time. So let the tape rolling and Anthony
give You the question to trigger Your brains.
If You repeat the cassette with 10 or 20 times, You can memorize the lines for the rest of Your life’s. They are not so bad if You are a emerging scientist. At least in a celibacy.

How to get sure of things may be an too long study to waste a life. To start to get sure of Your ”infantry attacks” between the ”pop and crackle sound”, sport an el Alamo in TV You need a better knowledge. This is already told if I remember correctly , You were asked to split observation t smaller groups and dissect them from others. It is work which may get into the nerves.
To review if the ”infantry attacks” observed occurred fro time period when usually there ”pops and crackles” lets say after the gunpowder was invented you are at ease. If not the You musty imagine which might pop and crackle or You must decide pop corn probably was not contextual from the perspective of Your study but contextual only and random in perspective of Your study.

if still You can not find clues You can always add more of the mass into your parameters there should be a variety of options.


* Please refer the dilemmas in science and speculations. E.g Albert Einstein introduces his theory E=Mc2 in 1905. He says it is not probably practical question to
prove the formula working.
1938 Otto Hahn tells all of the world he managed to do it.




--------


1.4. ”Multipliers” Microsoft Excel           print/file explained

The row information
in the Microsoft Excel print/data of ”Multipliers” worksheet is explained below.

Example of row information with explanations:

1,55   
Ord-t   
######mass   
95%
Section ###   
#######
########

The number 1,55 refers to multiplier strength          presenting the deviation       from average amount of tornadoes=1
         
1.55 refers a claim there is 55%    
probability having tornado attack              within timecycle presented by the sequence of the framework.

Ord-t   (ordinary tornado)       
refers to DATA SAMPLE B meaning in
this case the tornado is not killer-tornado

########## refers the gauge which in             here    ####### ####                  

95% refers to a confidence
interval used in statistical test.
It mean 95% of the cases
the behaviour would be similar in a population
which would depict all of the tornadoes.
Confidence interval refers to idea
to test the meaningfulness of
findings and the sufficiency of the sample size.


Section ### refers the measured    phase
which gauge has forwarded from
the phase of ##### ###### = #######


Practically the whole sentence consist
the information that when ###### ######
there is 1,55 increased risk of having
non-killer tornado.




-------

to the users of #######-database

1A.2* Encoded damage path information in this study


Regarding the length of the damage path the ”unit” in the database in this study was mile/1000. If the damage path was reported
to be for example 22.2 miles long; corresponding feeded numeral values into the database was equally 22200.


Encoding

DATA BASE A = Both

DATA BASE B = Ord-t

DATA BASE C = Kil-t

DATA BASE A
*Note: In the appendix__ and for the users of Macintosh Database, Microsoft Excel ”Multiplier”-chart the DATA Sample A is marked with the word ”Both” while DATA SAMPLE A = DATA SAMPLE B DATA SAMPLE C

DATA BASE B

*In the appendix__ and for the users of Macintosh Database, Microsoft Excel ”Multiplier”-chart the DATA Sample B is marked with the word ”Ord-t” i.e. (Ordinary Tornadoes)

DATA BASE C

*In the appendix__ and for the users of Macintosh Database, Microsoft Excel ”Multiplier”-chart the DATA Sample C is marked with the ”Kill-t” i.e.(Killer Tornadoes)

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