Kohta ilmestyy uusi tutkimus Proceedings of the Royal Society A -lehdessä. Tutkimus käsittelee Auringon ja kosmisten säteiden vaikutusta maapallon ilmastoon.
Tutkimuksessa todetaan, että vuoden 1985 jälkeistä lämpenemistä ei selitä lisääntynyt Auringon säteily eikä myöskään vähentynyt kosminen säteily.
Tämä on huono uutinen Svensmarkille. On jopa arveltu, että se olisi viimeinen naula kosmoklimatologian arkkuun:
>>>This paper is the final nail in the coffin for people who would like to make the Sun responsible for present global warming," says Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.>Even in the face of the new analysis, Svensmark insists that solar theories should not be dismissed. "If you look at temperatures in the troposphere, there is a remarkable correlation with solar activity," he says.>Lockwood insists that none of the tropospheric data show the trend that the solar theory would need.>Nir Shaviv, an astrophysicist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem who has championed a Sunclimate link, argues that there may be a lag in Earth's reaction to the Sun because of the thermal inertia of the oceans.>But other climate researchers find the idea of a `hidden' time lag unconvincing. "With each year, and with each new set of data that comes in, a time lag becomes ever more unlikely," says Urs Neu, deputy head of ProClim-, the climate and global change forum of the Swiss Academy of Sciences in Bern.>On other timescales, however, Sunclimate links may remain worthy of study. "Climate change is a cocktail of many effects," says Jasper Kirkby, a physicist at CERN, the European particle-physics laboratory near Geneva in Switzerland, who is leading an experiment aimed at simulating the effect of cosmic rays on clouds. "Past climate changes have clearly been associated with solar activity. Even if this is not the case now, it is still important to understand how solar variability affects climate.">Abstract: It has been claimed by others that observed temporal correlations of terrestrial cloud cover with `the cosmic ray intensity' are causal. The possibility arises, therefore, of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming. If true, the implications would be very great.
We have examined this claim to look for evidence to corroborate it. So far we have not found any and so our tentative conclusions are to doubt it. Such correlations as appear are more likely to be due to the small variations in solar irradiance, which, of course, correlate with cosmic rays. We estimate that less than 15% of the 11-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2% of the warming over the last 35 years is due to this cause.
Tutkimuksessa todetaan, että vuoden 1985 jälkeistä lämpenemistä ei selitä lisääntynyt Auringon säteily eikä myöskään vähentynyt kosminen säteily.
Tämä on huono uutinen Svensmarkille. On jopa arveltu, että se olisi viimeinen naula kosmoklimatologian arkkuun:
>>>This paper is the final nail in the coffin for people who would like to make the Sun responsible for present global warming," says Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.>Even in the face of the new analysis, Svensmark insists that solar theories should not be dismissed. "If you look at temperatures in the troposphere, there is a remarkable correlation with solar activity," he says.>Lockwood insists that none of the tropospheric data show the trend that the solar theory would need.>Nir Shaviv, an astrophysicist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem who has championed a Sunclimate link, argues that there may be a lag in Earth's reaction to the Sun because of the thermal inertia of the oceans.>But other climate researchers find the idea of a `hidden' time lag unconvincing. "With each year, and with each new set of data that comes in, a time lag becomes ever more unlikely," says Urs Neu, deputy head of ProClim-, the climate and global change forum of the Swiss Academy of Sciences in Bern.>On other timescales, however, Sunclimate links may remain worthy of study. "Climate change is a cocktail of many effects," says Jasper Kirkby, a physicist at CERN, the European particle-physics laboratory near Geneva in Switzerland, who is leading an experiment aimed at simulating the effect of cosmic rays on clouds. "Past climate changes have clearly been associated with solar activity. Even if this is not the case now, it is still important to understand how solar variability affects climate.">Abstract: It has been claimed by others that observed temporal correlations of terrestrial cloud cover with `the cosmic ray intensity' are causal. The possibility arises, therefore, of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming. If true, the implications would be very great.
We have examined this claim to look for evidence to corroborate it. So far we have not found any and so our tentative conclusions are to doubt it. Such correlations as appear are more likely to be due to the small variations in solar irradiance, which, of course, correlate with cosmic rays. We estimate that less than 15% of the 11-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2% of the warming over the last 35 years is due to this cause.
Vastaukset 4
Vanhimmat
"Tutkimuksessa todetaan, että vuoden 1985 jälkeistä lämpenemistä ei selitä lisääntynyt Auringon säteily eikä myöskään vähentynyt kosminen säteily."
Auringon säteilyssä ei ole havaittu mitään merkittäviä muutoksia. Säteily ei siis ole lisääntynyt vuoden 1985 jälkeen, eikä kosmisten säteiden määrä vähentynyt, vaan kokoajan nämä ovat vaihdelleet normaalissa syklissä.
Kuten New Scientistin käyrät näyttävät:
http://environment.newscientist.com/data/images/ns/cms/dn11650/dn11650-3_738.jpg
Säteilyteho on 1366 /- 0,5 wattia / neliömetri.
Kuvassa näkyy, että n. vuonna 1985 auringon säteily energia todellakin lähti nousuun ja kosmiset säteet laskuun, sitten taas 1990-1996 säteilyenergia taas laski ja kosmiset säteet lisääntyivät ja sitten nousi ja sitten laski taas. You get a picture. Normaalia syklistä vaihtelua.
Ja tässä puhutaan todella pienistä muutoksista, säteilyenergian osaltakin /- 0,5 wattia 1366 wattia / neliömetri!
>>>Auringon säteilyssä ei ole havaittu mitään merkittäviä muutoksia.>The analysis shows that global warming since 1985 has been caused neither by an increase in solar radiation nor by a decrease in the flux of galactic cosmic rays (M. Lockwood and C. Fröhlich Proc. R. Soc. A doi:10.1098/rspa.2007.1880; 2007).
Hyvä juttu, että lämpeneminen jatkuu eikä uutta jääkautta ole odotettavissa auringon oikkuilujen vuoksi. Nyt vielä kun tuo lämpeneminen hiukan nopeutuisi niin päästäisiin täällä Suomessakin eroon tästä hyytävästä pakkasilmastosta.
On ihan tyhmää odottaa 70-80 vuotta, että Suomessa on muutama aste lämpimämpää. Voit muuttaa etelään vaikka huomenna, ja sen jälkeen on yli 25 astetta joka päivä.
Pakkoko täällä on asua? Jos ei miellytä ilmasto, niin muuta muualle.