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    Tornadotulokista osa 3

    CH 1. MAIN RESULTS 1. MULTIPLIERS PRESENTED The objective of this study was to prove Predictive Theory more likely to be true or false according selected framework. To measure the datasample in a simple form a suitable reference unit was developed. In this study it is called an multiplier. The multipliers in this study indicates how much each result deviates from the normal frequency. In this case would be the value 1.00. The values of a multipliers varies in this study from 0.00-0.69 and 1.31-2.923 The selected multipiers deviates therefore at minimum /- 0.31 from the average value (1.00) which makes multipliers showing meaningful deviation in the list below2 hence has never values between 0.70 to 1.30. Multiplier value below 1 pinpoints the timeperiod when tornado risk was decreased. This is called in this study;safer cycle2. Values above 1 depicted the timeperiod of a heightened risk of a tornado.This is called in this study;risk cycle3 The multipliers depicts the ratio of the selected section to the average (1.00) of the each frequency giving the proof of those sections which differs meaningfully are included to multipliers. REFERENCES 1= 2= data users: refer also Microsoft Excel File ”Multipliers” 2= Those variables which have got the values exceeding 2.92 is because they are analysed with 36-section procedure 3= (some even up to 4.18) ------- In this study there are altogether 762 multipliers listed. Of those 182 are results based on 1-dimensional gauges ( marked in the list below with note ”1D”).578 multipliers are results from 2-dimensional gauges (marked in the list below with note of ”2D”). 2.   Multipliers analysed Here the main results of this study is presented. The amount of the multipliers indicates that there are deviances between different sections in context to tornado occurrence. Multipliers here supports the existence of asynchronic time cycles further supporting the Predictive Theory. This magnitude of findings suggest Predictive Theory being correct is more likely than to be invalid2. From the point of view of tornado detection multipliers gives a basic knowledge to build a tornado theory and makes it possible to build an alarm system2. . 1.2. Multipliers by tornado type As explained in the chapter introducing the background variables; the whole database was handled in three control groups: DATA SAMPLE A, B and C. These control groups differ regarding if they consist killer-tornadoes and sample size4. 762 multiplier were found between these control groups followingly:             amount of             multipliers DATA SAMPLE A      207 DATA SAMPLE B      227 DATA SAMPLE C       328              4 refer. Background Variables, p. ##. In the table below the multipliers are listed according control groups and separating the information if they involved with risk cycle2 or safer cycle3. Table 1.3b ”Tornado risk in control              groups”          increase    decrease          tornado     tornado           risk       risk DATA SAMPLE A      121      86 DATA SAMPLE B      122      105 DATA SAMPLE C       174      154        1.3. Multipliers by sections Sections5 in this study equalled to timeperiod6 which was usually 1/12 of a whole timecycle. The results below represent the deviances between sections when all multipliers are collected to the section levels. 5= ref. ”Sketching the tornado alarm system” p. __? 6= ref.”Documentation Protocol” 1.3a Tornado sensitivity by sections In the table below all multipliers are listed according sections and ranked in order by frequencies. Numbers in the table equals with real frequencies. Table 1.3a ”Overall tornado sensitivity by        sections” Section      Amount of          multipliers    Section-1      101    Section-2      81 Section-12      78 Section-6      71 Section-7       64 Section-8       62 Section-9      57 Section-3      57 Section-11      53 Section-4      52 Section-5       44 Section-10      42 (=762luvut oikein) 5 refer. Background Variables, p. ##. 1.3b Tornado risk by sections In the table below the multipliers are presented in sections according if they produce a safer or riskier time periods. Columns which have deviances suggesting safer cycle is coloured blue when columns suggesting risk cycles is coloured red.The last numeral column on the right indicates with prefix the volume when there are more observations suggesting risk cycle and with - prefix the volume when there are more observations suggesting safe cycle during the time period. The list are ranked in order by the volumes of riskiest to safest sections. Numbers in the table equals with real frequencies. Table 1.3b ”Overall tornadorisk by                    sections”          Increase    decrease          tornado     tornado           risk       risk Section-1      67      34       33 Section-2      51      30       21 Section-12      52      26       26 Section-9      37      20       17 Section-11      42      11       11 Section-3      30      27       3 Section-10      20      22      -2 Section-7       30      34      -4 Section-8       26      36      -10 Section-4      21      31      -10 Section-5       15      29      -14 Section-6      26      45      -19 (=762 luvut                oikein muutenkin Of Volumes; there are 345 multipliers which suggest the ”safer cycle” and 417 multipliers which suggest the ”risk cycle”. Sections: 1,2,9,11, and 12 seem to possess somewhat overall trend to be involved with more often increasing the tornado risk. Sections; 4,5,6 and 8 seem to more often decrease the tornado risk. (oikein laskettu 762) ------- 1.4. ”Multipliers” Microsoft Excel           print/file explained (tŠmŠ alla oleva on oikeastaan suullisen presentataion looginne tŠyte) ”The single multipliers which the alarm systems can be based on are not detailed in this presentation. They are presented in the p___ Chapter 5. ”Sketching the tornado alarm system”. The Multipliers are gathered in the list and is found from p__from appendix __ There is also reading guide for print file and to version of datafile of Microsoft Excel 3.0 Macintosh with terms and abbreviations explained. 1.5 Conclusions The objective of the multiplier study was to prove if there is variances or not. The variances were found. This can be proved from the amount of multipliers found with meaningful variances. No further analyses is therefore needed, while Pnt was achiving validation.
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    CH 1. MAIN RESULTS 1. MULTIPLIERS PRESENTED The objective of this study was to prove Predictive Theory more likely to be true or false according selected framework. To measure the datasample in a simple form a suitable reference unit was developed. In this study it is called an multiplier. The multipliers in this study indicates how much each result deviates from the normal frequency. In this case would be the value 1.00. The values of a multipliers varies in this study from 0.00-0.69 and 1.31-2.923 The selected multipiers deviates therefore at minimum /- 0.31 from the average value (1.00) which makes multipliers showing meaningful deviation in the list below2 hence has never values between 0.70 to 1.30. Multiplier value below 1 pinpoints the timeperiod when tornado risk was decreased. This is called in this study;safer cycle2. Values above 1 depicted the timeperiod of a heightened risk of a tornado.This is called in this study;risk cycle3 The multipliers depicts the ratio of the selected section to the average (1.00) of the each frequency giving the proof of those sections which differs meaningfully are included to multipliers. REFERENCES 1= 2= data users: refer also Microsoft Excel File ”Multipliers” 2= Those variables which have got the values exceeding 2.92 is because they are analysed with 36-section procedure 3= (some even up to 4.18) ------- In this study there are altogether 762 multipliers listed. Of those 182 are results based on 1-dimensional gauges ( marked in the list below with note ”1D”).578 multipliers are results from 2-dimensional gauges (marked in the list below with note of ”2D”). 2.   Multipliers analysed Here the main results of this study is presented. The amount of the multipliers indicates that there are deviances between different sections in context to tornado occurrence. Multipliers here supports the existence of asynchronic time cycles further supporting the Predictive Theory. This magnitude of findings suggest Predictive Theory being correct is more likely than to be invalid2. From the point of view of tornado detection multipliers gives a basic knowledge to build a tornado theory and makes it possible to build an alarm system2. . 1.2. Multipliers by tornado type As explained in the chapter introducing the background variables; the whole database was handled in three control groups: DATA SAMPLE A, B and C. These control groups differ regarding if they consist killer-tornadoes and sample size4. 762 multiplier were found between these control groups followingly:             amount of             multipliers DATA SAMPLE A      207 DATA SAMPLE B      227 DATA SAMPLE C       328              4 refer. Background Variables, p. ##. In the table below the multipliers are listed according control groups and separating the information if they involved with risk cycle2 or safer cycle3. Table 1.3b ”Tornado risk in control              groups”          increase    decrease          tornado     tornado           risk       risk DATA SAMPLE A      121      86 DATA SAMPLE B      122      105 DATA SAMPLE C       174      154        1.3. Multipliers by sections Sections5 in this study equalled to timeperiod6 which was usually 1/12 of a whole timecycle. The results below represent the deviances between sections when all multipliers are collected to the section levels. 5= ref. ”Sketching the tornado alarm system” p. __? 6= ref.”Documentation Protocol” 1.3a Tornado sensitivity by sections In the table below all multipliers are listed according sections and ranked in order by frequencies. Numbers in the table equals with real frequencies. Table 1.3a ”Overall tornado sensitivity by        sections” Section      Amount of          multipliers    Section-1      101    Section-2      81 Section-12      78 Section-6      71 Section-7       64 Section-8       62 Section-9      57 Section-3      57 Section-11      53 Section-4      52 Section-5       44 Section-10      42 (=762luvut oikein) 5 refer. Background Variables, p. ##. 1.3b Tornado risk by sections In the table below the multipliers are presented in sections according if they produce a safer or riskier time periods. Columns which have deviances suggesting safer cycle is coloured blue when columns suggesting risk cycles is coloured red.The last numeral column on the right indicates with prefix the volume when there are more observations suggesting risk cycle and with - prefix the volume when there are more observations suggesting safe cycle during the time period. The list are ranked in order by the volumes of riskiest to safest sections. Numbers in the table equals with real frequencies. Table 1.3b ”Overall tornadorisk by                    sections”          Increase    decrease          tornado     tornado           risk       risk Section-1      67      34       33 Section-2      51      30       21 Section-12      52      26       26 Section-9      37      20       17 Section-11      42      11       11 Section-3      30      27       3 Section-10      20      22      -2 Section-7       30      34      -4 Section-8       26      36      -10 Section-4      21      31      -10 Section-5       15      29      -14 Section-6      26      45      -19 (=762 luvut                oikein muutenkin Of Volumes; there are 345 multipliers which suggest the ”safer cycle” and 417 multipliers which suggest the ”risk cycle”. Sections: 1,2,9,11, and 12 seem to possess somewhat overall trend to be involved with more often increasing the tornado risk. Sections; 4,5,6 and 8 seem to more often decrease the tornado risk. (oikein laskettu 762) ------- 1.4. ”Multipliers” Microsoft Excel           print/file explained (tŠmŠ alla oleva on oikeastaan suullisen presentataion looginne tŠyte) ”The single multipliers which the alarm systems can be based on are not detailed in this presentation. They are presented in the p___ Chapter 5. ”Sketching the tornado alarm system”. The Multipliers are gathered in the list and is found from p__from appendix __ There is also reading guide for print file and to version of datafile of Microsoft Excel 3.0 Macintosh with terms and abbreviations explained. 1.5 Conclusions The objective of the multiplier study was to prove if there is variances or not. The variances were found. This can be proved from the amount of multipliers found with meaningful variances. No further analyses is therefore needed, while Pnt was achiving validation.

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