USA:lle suurkiitos!

"Vaikka Suomessa onkin ollut ennätyslämmin alkutalvi, niin viimeisimmät tutkimukset vahvistavat, että arktiset alueet ovat siirtymässä luonnollisen ilmastonvaihtelun mukaisesti kylmenevään trendiin. Tällä voi olla suuri merkitys suomalaistenkin elämään lähivuosina. Elämme hyvin lähellä arktisia alueita ja maassaame on tehty aika linjatonta energiapolitiikkaa viime vuosikymmeneltä alkaen. Ankara kylmyys voi piankin olla taas talvisin vieraanaamme johtuen ilmastonvaihdoksesta arktisilla alueilla.

Seuraava juttu on julkaistu Siencemag.orgissa 5.1., mutta sinne ei pääse ilman tunnuksia.

Wade


"The [recent] warming has to have a natural component," explains Arctic researcher James Overland of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) in Seattle, Washington. When that natural trend inevitably reverses, he says, "it's very likely we'll see a slowing of the warming rate in the Arctic for a while." The region could even cool, until the next natural swing to the warm side again reinforces the greenhouse. A pause in warming could take the wind out of the sails of global-warming activists and bolster climate contrarians who say it's all just Mother Nature fiddling with climate.
...
Toward the end of the 20th century, however, all the models produced a substantial warming at the same time. That, they believe, is the greenhouse kicking in. But "the air temperature and loss of sea ice [in the Arctic] is occurring faster than global climate models would predict," says Overland. "I'm interpreting that as a fairly strong natural variability signal on top of long-term anthropogenic change." If he's right, the strong warming and accelerating ice loss of the past 5 or 10 years are the product of combined natural and humanmade warmings.

In the models' futures, natural climate variability still looms large. "It will be a bumpy road," says Overland. "It's very likely we could have a 5-year period of colder temperatures, and people could say, 'Aha, we don't have global warming.'" But the next natural swing to the warm side would once again add to greenhouse warming and would likely "send us to a new place," he says--a place with far less ice and even hungrier polar bears. "Jim has a very valid message there," says Arctic researcher John Walsh of the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, but a tricky one to get across. The average citizen may have trouble grasping greenhouse warming that--even only regionally and for a few years--simply goes away."




James Overland antoi viisi vuotta aikaa riekkua


"The [recent] warming has to have a natural component," explains Arctic researcher James Overland of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) in Seattle, Washington. When that natural trend inevitably reverses, he says, "it's very likely we'll see a slowing of the warming rate in the Arctic for a while." The region could even cool, until the next natural swing to the warm side again reinforces the greenhouse.

In the models' futures, natural climate variability still looms large. "It will be a bumpy road," says Overland. "It's very likely we could have a 5-year period of colder temperatures, and people could say, 'Aha, we don't have global warming.'" But the next natural swing to the warm side would once again add to greenhouse warming and would likely "send us to a new place,"

Kansainvälinen tutkijaryhmä tuli viime vuoden lopulla siihen tulokseen, että arktiset ilmamassat alkavat jälleen vyörymään lisääntyvässä määrin myös kohti pohjoisen pallonpuoliskon tiuhaan asuttuja seutuja."

Itämeren ja suomenlahden, mitä ne tänne on tullu sotkemaan meidän vedet.