There are nearly as many numbers cited for what a doubling of CO2 will do as there are scientists working in the field. The most often cited expert on the subject is Svante Arrhenius, even though he was a physical chemist, not an atmospheric scientist, lived and worked a hundred years ago, and considered atmospheric science a hobby. He published the first numbers in 1896, 4.7 to 6°C. These numbers were criticized by Knut Ångstrom (one of the first true atmospheric scientists) in 1900 as being much too high. Later, in 1906, Arrhenius adjusted that number downward to 1.6°C. A hundred years ago, there was no consensus, even in one man’s head. Yet today, Arrhenius’ first numbers are the ones most often cited, and Ångstrom’s criticism is forgotten.
The value is estimated by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C, but is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. Values substantially higher than 4.5°C cannot be excluded, but agreement of models with observations is not as good for those values.[1]
Other estimates range from 0.4°C to as high as 10°C. The later number seems obviously too high, given the current lack of warming, and even the IPCC seems to agree. Another, more complete list of estimates is here. Given the amount of confirmation bias among the workers in this field, it is surprising that the average estimate is still less than 3°C. Arrhenius’ 1906 number, 1.6°C, may end up closest to the truth.
http://notrickszone.com/
The value is estimated by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C, but is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. Values substantially higher than 4.5°C cannot be excluded, but agreement of models with observations is not as good for those values.[1]
Other estimates range from 0.4°C to as high as 10°C. The later number seems obviously too high, given the current lack of warming, and even the IPCC seems to agree. Another, more complete list of estimates is here. Given the amount of confirmation bias among the workers in this field, it is surprising that the average estimate is still less than 3°C. Arrhenius’ 1906 number, 1.6°C, may end up closest to the truth.
http://notrickszone.com/
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